What should our response be if Russia invades Ukraine?

[Spur's Addiction]

So...we've gone from pretty much 24/7 coverage to mere mentions here and there. Any thoughts on why this is?

2 main reasons IMO.
- War has turned into a long slog of attrition. Not much to report on except constant artillery leveling towns and incremental gains by either side.
- Ton of big domestic issues in the past motnh or two have taken away attention to foreign matters.

 

[kingofnerf]

U.S. Warships Now in the Baltic Ahead of BALTOPS as Sweden, Finland Move Through NATO Membership Process - USNI News

At least three U.S. warships are operating in the Baltic Sea ahead of two weeks of international drills in the region, according to U.S. 6th Fleet. Big deck amphibious warship USS Kearsarge (LHD-3), amphib USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG-107) and command ship...

news.usni.org

According to this article the Kearsarge Amphibious Readiness Group (ARG) has now dropped anchor in Tallinn, Estonia, Maik Kotsar's hometown, which is just westward down the Baltic coast from St. Petersburg, Russia.

This the closest any NATO force has come to Russia up to this point.

"The drills with the Baltic nations come ahead of the NATO-led BALTOPS 22 exercise, which will be hosted in Sweden this year.

In addition to the U.S., countries in the exercise include Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

'Over 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft, and approximately 7,000 personnel will participate in BALTOPS 22,' reads a NATO release.
The exercise will include 'amphibious operations, gunnery, anti-submarine, and air defense exercises, as well as mine clearance operations, explosive ordnance disposal, unmanned underwater vehicles, and medical response.'

The U.S. contingent for BALTOPS will include Kearsarge, Gunston Hall and the Rota, Spain-based guided-missile destroyer USS Porter (DDG-78), Navy officials told USNI News on Tuesday.

The 51st iteration of the exercise comes as long-time participants Sweden and Finland have started the process to join NATO amidst Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Swedish officials, in particular, have made calls for the U.S. to operate more in the Baltic, a move that Navy and Marine Corps leaders have endorsed, reported USNI News.

'I look forward to the prospect of Sweden and Finland joining NATO and I foresee a day when we’re actually increasing our maritime operations in the Baltic Sea,' Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro told the House Appropriations defense subcommittee earlier in May."

If this ain't up the Russian bunghole at this point, I don't know what is.

It would be easy to go down some political rabbit hole at times with this thread, but I think we just need to stand united behind the current POTUS and the men and women of the DoD at this point.

 

[JimG]

According to this article the Kearsarge Amphibious Readiness Group (ARG) has now dropped anchor in Tallinn, Estonia,

This is Estonia's PM. Just sharing for a friend.

 

[kingofnerf]

Some of the leaders in the breakaway states are very young and sharp.

They speak a different language, but are very much like us.

 

[JimG]

Some of the leaders in the breakaway states are very young and sharp.

They've also found some leadership talent among some of their entertainment celebrities.

 

[kingofnerf]

Ukraine Deploys Anti-Ship Harpoon Missiles to the Edge of Black Sea, MoD Says - USNI News

Ukrainian forces have deployed Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the Black Sea as a counter to Russian surface ships in the region, Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov said. Denmark provided the U.S.-built anti-ship missiles to Kyiv, the Pentagon announced last month. The new Harpoon costal defense...

news.usni.org

 

[FurmanCock]

Rumor has it after giving $50 billion in aid that Congress will be putting together another package in the near future.

 

[JimG]

Ukraine Deploys Anti-Ship Harpoon Missiles to the Edge of Black Sea, MoD Says - USNI News

Ukrainian forces have deployed Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the Black Sea as a counter to Russian surface ships in the region, Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov said. Denmark provided the U.S.-built anti-ship missiles to Kyiv, the Pentagon announced last month. The new Harpoon costal defense...

news.usni.org

Looks like they already hit something. Double tap....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537695657439404032

 

[JimG]

Interesting...sometimes you need a military guy to tell what's really going on:

Ukraine war: Russia has 'strategically lost', UK armed forces chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin says

"President Putin has used about 25% of his army's power to gain a tiny amount of territory and 50,000 people either dead or injured."
Sir Tony said: "This is a dreadful mistake by Russia. Russia will never take control of Ukraine.
"Russia has strategically lost already. NATO is stronger, Finland and Sweden are looking to join."
He said Moscow had been forced to give up its objectives of taking over most Ukrainian cities and was now engaged in a tactical battle in which fighting is "tough".

Ukraine war: Russia has 'strategically lost', UK armed forces chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin says

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK's chief of defence staff, said Russia was under pressure because "it's running out of people and it's running out of hi-tech missiles".

news.sky.com

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I would have thought someone on the inside would have taken Putin out by now.

 

[JimG]

I would have thought someone on the inside would have taken Putin out by now.

...ain't bad enough yet. Sanctions take time. Russia has built some buffers into their economy, but that will only last so long.
If conditions don't change, look at the end of the year and see where the RU economy is.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

...ain't bad enough yet. Sanctions take time. Russia has built some buffers into their economy, but that will only last so long.
If conditions don't change, look at the end of the year and see where the RU economy is.

I was thinking more along the lines of a Russian patriot taking him out for squandering so many Russian lives and resources for no valid reason as opposed to economic reasons.

 

[JimG]

I was thinking more along the lines of a Russian patriot taking him out for squandering so many Russian lives and resources for no valid reason as opposed to economic reasons.

Supposedly there was an attempt a while back. Who knows?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Supposedly there was an attempt a while back. Who knows?

Good point, unless an attempt is successful we'd probably never know of it for sure.

 

[kingofnerf]

Friend.....
The USN has the range with weapons/aircraft to fight from long distances. The emergence of China has pushed a lot of this.

The US was in Afghanistan for 20 years and is still in Iraq.

The Ukrainians do not have the force levels/ capability of invading Russia, just as the Russians didn't have the forces to invade Ukraine. That would require an army of 500k+ and includes some kind of active air force. Neither Ukraine or Russia posses the logistics to successfully invade one another.

Nothing you are seeing in this conflict is close to the way the US fights wars. Don't forget the ground war in Desert Storm lasted 100 hrs & that was 31 yrs ago.
We fought an air war for 6 weeks before our ground forces crossed the FLOT into Iraq.

The surface warfare community has suffered as it always does after long ground wars.

USS George Washington Sailor Deaths Prompts Navy to Investigate Manning in Maintenance - USNI News

The string of deaths of sailors assigned to carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) are prompting Navy leaders to rethink manning for longer ship maintenance periods, the head of the service’s East Coast carrier force said on Tuesday. George Washington entered Newport News Shipbuilding, in...

news.usni.org

Current events in Ukraine only serve to highlight the consequences if a nuclear carrier cannot make it's deployment in certain global situations.

I don't even want to think about a catastrophic Bon Homme Richard-type fire on a nuclear carrier while it's in the yard for maintenance.

Then I recently saw this and decided to respond to your comments:

SWO Boss: Surface Fleet Reforms See Positive Results Five Years After Fatal Collisions - USNI News

Surface warfare reforms crafted to improve mariner skills and manage demand for ships are trickling into the fleet five years after two fatal collisions in the Western Pacific forced the Navy to retool how the service trains the surface fleet. Multiple investigations and criminal prosecutions...

news.usni.org

The reforms following the 2017 collisions follow two decades of shortened training for sailors and the surface force skipping maintenance during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In 2003, the same year the U.S. invaded Iraq, the Navy cut the 16-week training at Surface Warfare Officer’s School and relied on new ensigns squeezing in training via CD-ROMs between schedules to learn the mariner skills. In 2012, the Navy restored an eight-week SWOS course.

Not trying to pick at you, but it appears the USN eliminated the Surface Warfare Officer School (SWOS) at Coronado until reviving it in 2012. I did not know that until reading this article. Holy crap!

As investigators looked at the collisions’ underlying causes, the Navy found that there were manning gaps and degraded equipment on many ships deployed to the Pacific.

Following the collisions, the Navy guaranteed Congress that only combat-ready ships would deploy.

Russia was also involved in a similar ground war in Syria during the same time. The almost 20 years of neglect is showing in both the U. S. and Russian navies right now. There are serious culture issues in both naval forces right now. NATO is watching Russian reduce it's weapons arsenals while the Chinese are watching the NATO powers reduce theirs in the Ukraine conflict.

There have also been multiple senior leaders relieved in the Navy and Marine Corps for leadership issues in the last two years.

Navy Relieves Commander of Destroyer USS Preble - USNI News

The Navy relieved the commanding officer of USS Preble (DDG-88), the sea service announced in a press release Tuesday evening. Commodore of Destroyer Squadron 23 Capt. Patrick O’Mahoney relieved Cmdr. Peter Lesaca Tuesday, citing a loss of confidence in his ability to lead Preble, homeported in...

news.usni.org

There are some major culture issues right now in the Fleet right now.

 

[JimG]

NATO is watching Russian reduce it's weapons arsenals while the Chinese are watching the NATO powers reduce theirs in the Ukraine conflict.

Not a single NATO aircraft or air power weapons system has been degraded in any way.

Any issues with USN readiness has nothing to do with the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Reduced stocks of Javelins/Stingers/155mm shells/M777s & MLRS systems, has no effect on a potential naval/air power conflict with the PRC. Apples v oranges.

 

[GMB2USC23]

Interesting...sometimes you need a military guy to tell what's really going on:

Ukraine war: Russia has 'strategically lost', UK armed forces chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin says

Ukraine war: Russia has 'strategically lost', UK armed forces chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin says

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK's chief of defence staff, said Russia was under pressure because "it's running out of people and it's running out of hi-tech missiles".

news.sky.com

Propaganda and they can buy more from China or India, they are spending Billions a month buying oil from Russia, they will trade for weapons...
Similar to the Paris Climate Accord, sanctions don't work if only a select few follow them, like gun legislation it simply handcuffs the law abiding citizens...
Our sanctions simply hurt us, like saying we will go completely green by 2035 will simply make gas more expensive the closer we get to 2035 and overwhelm our power grid...
Amazing how we will send weapons to arm Ukraine citizens to protect thier border while having no problem with ours being over run...

 

[kingofnerf]

Not a single NATO aircraft or air power weapons system has been degraded in any way.

Any issues with USN readiness has nothing to do with the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Reduced stocks of Javelins/Stingers/155mm shells/M777s & MLRS systems, has no effect on a potential naval/air power conflict with the PRC. Apples v oranges.

This report says otherwise:

Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks?

The United States has supplied Ukraine with thousands of Javelins, the anti-tank missiles that have become the iconic weapon of the war, but the U.S. inventory is dwindling. The United States has probably given about one-third of its stock to Ukraine. Thus, the United States is approaching the...

www.csis.org

"The United States has not published figures about its Javelin inventory, so this must be deduced. According to the Army budget books, total production has been 37,739 since production began in 1994. Every year, U.S. forces use some missiles for training and testing. Thus, there may be 20,000 to 25,000 remaining in the stockpiles. These 7,000 systems represent about one-third of the U.S. total inventory.

That fraction doesn't sound like much; after all, two-thirds of the inventory remains. However, military planners are likely getting nervous. The United States maintains stocks for a variety of possible global conflicts that may occur against North Korea, Iran, or Russia itself. At some point, those stocks will get low enough that military planners will question whether the war plans can be executed. The United States is likely approaching that point.

The obvious answer is to build more missiles (and launch units, the control box that goes on the missile). The United States has been buying Javelins at the rate of about 1,000 a year. The maximum production rate is 6,480 a year, though it would likely take a year or more to reach that level. The delivery time is 32 months; that is, once an order is placed, it will take 32 months before a missile is delivered. This means that it will take about three or four years to replace the missiles that have been delivered so far. If the United States delivers more missiles to Ukraine, this time to replace extends."

I remember someone saying in a recent government hearing that the type of capacitors for the Javelin systems are no longer manufactured, too.

The Ukraine conflict is exposing readiness issues in the military forces of both us and Russia.

You are demonstrating the same status quo mentality that said it was okay for dependents to be forced to buy body armor for their loved ones serving in Iraq and Afghanistan (while also being price-gouged by government contractors at the same time).

It's also the same wonky mentality that said we didn't need a surge in Iraq to save soldiers' lives when we actually did. Thank God for John McCain and those like him. We don't have boots on the ground in Ukraine, but those in the next conflict may pay a horrible price for any shortages that occur because of the current conflict.

And China and Iran are indeed watching our military right now. An enforced no-fly zone to force a cease-fire has to happen at some point.

 

[FurmanCock]

This report says otherwise:

Nerf, I may be completely lost here, but I think the point Jim was making is that the munitions being discussed here would not be the same munitions used by the navy and airforce -- they would be using different types of missiles. Not that the U.S. isn't decreasing our Javelin inventory, just that the navy and airforce don't use Javelins.

 

[JimG]

Nerf, I may be completely lost here, but I think the point Jim was making is that the munitions being discussed here would not be the same munitions used by the navy and airforce -- they would be using different types of missiles. Not that the U.S. isn't decreasing our Javelin inventory, just that the navy and airforce don't use Javelins.

Exactly. The Chinese (PRC) are not concerned with our stocks of Javelins/155mm arty or MLRS units. We are not going to fight a ground war with the PRC.

To date, we've not shipped the Ukrainians a single item that would have any noticeable impact on a future conflict with the PRC.