2019 Opponent Preview: Tar Heels Look For Resurgence Under New Head Coach Mack Brown

[FeatheredCock]

2019 Opponent Preview: Tar Heels Look For Resurgence Under New Head Coach Mack Brown

May 29, 2019, | thespursupshow.com

OPPONENT:  North Carolina Tar Heels

WHEN: Saturday, August 31st

WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)

ALL-TIME SERIES RECORD: UNC leads 34-19-4

LAST MEETING:  September 3, 2015 – South Carolina pulled away thanks to a late Shon Carson TD run to secure the win in Charlotte.

2017 RECORD: 2-9 (1-7)

Head Coach…


Mack Brown returns to Chapel Hill, a place he spent his coaching days from 1988 to 1997.

Brown led the Heels to three 10 win seasons, six consecutive bowl games and two AP Top-10 finishes. The hire has raises eyebrows across the landscape of college football, as Brown looks to bring the UNC program back to prominence.

How did they fare in 2018?

North Carolina limped to a 2-9 overall finish a season ago, forcing out former head coach Larry Fedora. The Heels struggled offensively, scoring less than 28 PPG and had trouble finding any sort of consistency at the QB position. The defense wasn’t much better, as UNC allowed teams to rush for over 218 yards per game, one of the worst marks in the ACC. Fedora was fired shortly after the conclusion of last season.

Best Returning Player…


As a freshman, Carter burst onto the scene for the Heels. Carter ran for 597 yards as a true freshman, all while splitting carries in a crowded backfield.

What’s more impressive is his home run ability, as he averaged 7.1 YPC. Look for Carter to become a focal point of the UNC offense, especially as a new QB is groomed in Chapel Hill.

Overall Outlook…

Just two years removed from an ACC Title game appearance, North Carolina mustered just one conference win and was arguably one of the worst teams in college football.

UNC made one of the most intriguing and head scratching hires of the off-season, bringing back head coach Mack Brown to Chapel Hill.

Brown had great success at North Carolina before jumping to Texas, where he won a national title with the Longhorns.

Don’t expect the honeymoon to be smooth in the beginning, however. Brown inherits a depleted roster with question marks seemingly all over the field. 

There’s a new spark in Chapel Hill, but expect the Heels to struggle for most of the 2019 season.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION: 3-9 (1-7)

 

[ConwayGamecock]

UNC went 3-9 in 2017, and 2-9 last season. They lost a game from their schedule last season due to Hurricane Francis, and were not able to replace the game. Or didn't try to, as an additional win wouldn't have garnered them a bowl invitation. So that's a combined 5-18 (2-14) over the last 2 seasons. They are 2-0 against conference foe Pittsburgh in that time-frame however, much to Pitt's chagrin I'm sure.

Mack Brown is much like Steve Spurrier in my mind: an old-school head collegiate football coach that has forgotten more about putting together quality, competitive football programs at the highest levels, than most other collegiate head coaches have learned. What may separate him from 2005 Spurrier, I think, is his competitiveness at this late stage of his career: when Spurrier turned 67 in April 2012, he was in charge of a FB program that had just set its program precedent of 11 wins, and finished 2011ranked in the top 10 in the nation. Many of it's better players were returning for 2012. Spurrier was at the time riding atop a crest of success that the program had never experienced before, and would continue through the 2013 season.

Brown will turn 68 this coming August 27, just before his own initial campaign during his 2nd tenure at UNC. He will be in charge of a program that  has very little returning experience of how to win collegiate games, and very little overall depth. It took Spurrier five years at USC before he began to see legitimate successes, and while I have no doubt that Brown can do the same at UNC, he's taking over a worse program than what Spurrier took over in 2005, and that program was in pretty bad shape.

My question is, does Brown still have the competitive juices to prove himself at this stage of his career, that Spurrier had in 2005. Brown's lone tenure at Texas lasted 1 year longer than Spurrier's tenures at both Duke and Florida - Spurrier's first 2 jobs as a head coach - and that's not even counting head coach jobs at App. State, Tulane, and the long first one at UNC. Spurrier had just ended a failed experiment in the NFL with the Redskins, and still wanted to continue coaching. He knew nothing but success as a collegiate head coach. Brown also had similar success - a national title, and a runners-up finish - but fewer conference titles and top-10 final rankings. His administration at Texas was declining in the final 3-4 seasons with 8-win seasons, despite bringing in high-ranked recruiting classes, and being the kingpin program in a state rife with elite prep talent.

Some at Texas felt that Brown had gotten "fat and happy" with a huge annual salary increase at the end of 2009 of some $2 million above his current annual salary at the time, where the success of the program dropped off precipitously immediately thereafter. That, along with the perennial failures to surpass conference rival Oklahoma and even play for- much less win - Big 12 conference titles, cultivated resentment and unrest in the Longhorn faithful at the end of Brown's tenure in Austin.

So perhaps Brown was stung by his forced retirement, and still has the desire to "prove" himself. If so, then he could definitely rebuild UNC's FB program back to contending for ACC titles (Brown never won the title during his first stint on "The Hill"), but if it should take him 4-5 seasons to get back there - and it very well may - will that desire still be there?

In any case, 2019 will be a season of trial and tribulation for Mack. I always hold true to the rule of thumb that new position coaches may impact those positions for a little bit, but typically not by much. A new coordinator can impact an entire offensive or defensive unit much more, especially if said new coordinator brings in totally new philosophies - changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3, or from a pro-style passing offense to a dual threat, wildcat spread type of offense, etc.

Bringing in a totally new coaching staff impacts a program the most: personnel that are already in the program have to prove themselves all over again, and often get recruited over by new recruits. terminology and culture within the program can totally change, and require time to adapt to. Totally new playbooks to learn, and old plays to un-learn.

So I will be surprised by all of the above, if UNC rebounds and has a great season for 2019. It still could, if it has quality depth of talent, but it seems to not have this. Which is why I think it will take Mack Brown some time, if it happens at all. And this is a season-opening game - with our staff stability and wealth of veteran, experienced players and leaders - that I feel strongly will be a win for the good guys!

 

[AC/DC/GC]

Fantastic read, Conway. Thanks for the insights!

 

[Longhaul]

Nice analysis and I agree with you.  I just don't see Mack being able to put in the time needed to get this thing turned around, but do see him as a coach to come in straighten the program out get it on the right track and then bring in someone in a couple of years.  It may just be me, but he seems to be a much older 68 than Spurrier was, I honestly thought he was in his 70's. 

 

[ShepCock]

Great read Conway.

Let UNC resurge all they want......AFTER Game 1.