South Carolina squares off with Florida in a nationally televised game on CBS Saturday afternoon. The stakes are high for both teams with the winner taking the driver's seat in the SEC East race. Here are five predictions for the annual gridiron meeting between the Gamecocks and Gators:
1. USC will get back to what it does best offensively: Last week's loss at LSU in which the Gamecocks threw 35 passes and ran the ball 25 times showed again that the USC offense operates differently against SEC East foes than Western Division teams. In the last six games against East teams, the Gamecocks have rushed the ball an average of 48.3 times per outing and the run-pass differential has surpassed 28 five times. Two weeks ago, USC pounded the ball at Georgia with 51 rushing attempts and 10 passes. Last year, USC ran the ball 52 times against Florida even without Lattimore.
However, in the four games against West teams since the beginning of the 2011 season, USC has averaged 32.5 rushing and 28.8 passing attempts per game, putting the TOTAL run-pass differential in those four games at 13 (3.3 per game). Curiously, USC is quicker to abandon the run against Western division teams. Then again, they've experienced less success in cross-divisional games, dropping three of those four clashes. Since USC is back playing an SEC East opponent, history suggests they focus on running the football, with or without Marcus Lattimore. In the last two games against Florida, USC has run the ball an astounding 106 times (52 in 2011, 54 in 2010). USC won both games. Coincidence? No.
2. USC will allow less than 125 passing yards: Long-time Florida supporters who worshipped the Fun-and-Gun in the 1990's will barely recognize the Gators offense these days. Reflecting Will Muschamp's philosophy that you must possess a dominant running game nowadays to win in the SEC, Florida has steamrolled over opponents behind the tandem of running back Mike Gillislee (615 rushing yards) and quarterback Jeff Driskel (326 yards). Florida ran the ball 70 percent (271 rushes in 388 total snaps) of the time in the first six games and there's nothing to suggest the Gators will do anything differently against USC.
Running the ball that many times naturally means you're not going to throw for many yards unless you hit some big passes. Florida, though, doesn't take many shots down the field. Not only are the Gators last in the SEC in passing offense by a wide margin (145.0 yards per game), the leading receiver for UF is junior tight end Jordan Reed, who has 21 receptions for 237 yards and one touchdown. Florida has thrown for only four touchdowns in six games (one in the red zone) as opposed to 14 rushing touchdowns. Driskel is 11th in the SEC in passing yards per game (139.3 yards per game) and 10th in passing efficiency (140.0 rating, 20.3 points behind USC quarterback Connor Shaw).
3. Ace Sanders will have at least one punt return of 20 or more yards: Suddenly, Sanders has emerged as one of the most exciting players in the SEC, mostly because of his keen ability to gain significant yardage returning punts, far from an easy feat. In seven games, Sanders has returned 18 punts for 313 yards for an average of 17.4 yards per return, putting him second in the SEC in both total punt return yards and average. His 70-yard return for a touchdown in the first quarter against Georgia is one of the highlights of the season, and stunned the Bulldogs.
How will Sanders fare in his second game against his home state school at the Swamp? He will have an important, potentially difference-making role, in the game. Florida is second in the SEC in net punting average (42.8 yards) and the Gators have allowed just 37 total return yards on 30 punts. That comes out to 1.2 yards per return. The looming battle between Sanders and Florida's punt coverage unit has already caught the eye of CBS color analyst Gary Danielson.
"The wildcard in this game is Ace Sanders," Danielson said. "He has really turned the tables for South Carolina when they've won. Florida punts the ball extremely well. They cover punts extremely well. Florida cannot let Sanders beat them."
4. USC will possess the ball with a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter: Last week, USC had a chance, albeit not a good one, to beat LSU with a last-second field goal had they managed to hit a couple of deep passes. But Shaw settled on throwing a couple of dump passes to Lattimore and the clock expired. The fact the losing team had a shot to win the game in the closing minutes is nothing new. This is the SEC, after all.
In the 17-13 season opening win over Vanderbilt, the Commodores had a chance to win the game in the final five minutes when they took over at their 20-yard line and drove as far as the VU 38 when a fourth down pass barely fell incomplete with 1:47 left. So, two of USC's three conference road games this season have come down to the wire. Last year, USC scored a touchdown with 3:50 left on a jump ball to Alshon Jeffery before Mississippi State launched a final desperation TD drive in the final minutes. But D.J. Swearinger laid out for a game-saving interception to preserve the victory.
USC has won eight of its last 10 games on the road. Most of those games have been close, hard-fought affairs. Chances are Saturday's game will be no different. Somebody on offense or defense will make a play in the final minute or so to decide the game. Last week, USC didn't get the job done on its final drive. They could get another opportunity this week.
5. Spurrier will be warmly
by Florida fans: During a meeting with reporters on Friday, ESPN analyst Desmond Howard asked, "Is Spurrier applauded or booed?" When told he is usually applauded by Florida fans, Howard replied, "That's good because he deserves that respect." ESPN plans a segment on Saturday morning's show showing photos of Spurrier first as a Heisman Trophy winning UF player in the mid-1960's, then as the Gators national championship winning coach and finally wearing a Gamecock visor. How will the crowed react when the third photo s shown?
Spurrier didn't hide his allegiance to Florida this week, but he's loyal to South Carolina and Duke, as well. Just because he's a Florida graduate and won the Heisman Trophy playing for the Gators doesn't mean he doesn't want to beat the pants off UF, because he does. If you believe otherwise, you severely underestimate Spurrier's competitiveness. But long-time Florida supporters fondly recall what Spurrier did for the Gators program in the 1990's, lifting it to unforeseen heights. The Cult of Spurrier survives in the Sunshine State.
link: http://southcarolina.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1424669
1. USC will get back to what it does best offensively: Last week's loss at LSU in which the Gamecocks threw 35 passes and ran the ball 25 times showed again that the USC offense operates differently against SEC East foes than Western Division teams. In the last six games against East teams, the Gamecocks have rushed the ball an average of 48.3 times per outing and the run-pass differential has surpassed 28 five times. Two weeks ago, USC pounded the ball at Georgia with 51 rushing attempts and 10 passes. Last year, USC ran the ball 52 times against Florida even without Lattimore.
However, in the four games against West teams since the beginning of the 2011 season, USC has averaged 32.5 rushing and 28.8 passing attempts per game, putting the TOTAL run-pass differential in those four games at 13 (3.3 per game). Curiously, USC is quicker to abandon the run against Western division teams. Then again, they've experienced less success in cross-divisional games, dropping three of those four clashes. Since USC is back playing an SEC East opponent, history suggests they focus on running the football, with or without Marcus Lattimore. In the last two games against Florida, USC has run the ball an astounding 106 times (52 in 2011, 54 in 2010). USC won both games. Coincidence? No.
2. USC will allow less than 125 passing yards: Long-time Florida supporters who worshipped the Fun-and-Gun in the 1990's will barely recognize the Gators offense these days. Reflecting Will Muschamp's philosophy that you must possess a dominant running game nowadays to win in the SEC, Florida has steamrolled over opponents behind the tandem of running back Mike Gillislee (615 rushing yards) and quarterback Jeff Driskel (326 yards). Florida ran the ball 70 percent (271 rushes in 388 total snaps) of the time in the first six games and there's nothing to suggest the Gators will do anything differently against USC.
Running the ball that many times naturally means you're not going to throw for many yards unless you hit some big passes. Florida, though, doesn't take many shots down the field. Not only are the Gators last in the SEC in passing offense by a wide margin (145.0 yards per game), the leading receiver for UF is junior tight end Jordan Reed, who has 21 receptions for 237 yards and one touchdown. Florida has thrown for only four touchdowns in six games (one in the red zone) as opposed to 14 rushing touchdowns. Driskel is 11th in the SEC in passing yards per game (139.3 yards per game) and 10th in passing efficiency (140.0 rating, 20.3 points behind USC quarterback Connor Shaw).
3. Ace Sanders will have at least one punt return of 20 or more yards: Suddenly, Sanders has emerged as one of the most exciting players in the SEC, mostly because of his keen ability to gain significant yardage returning punts, far from an easy feat. In seven games, Sanders has returned 18 punts for 313 yards for an average of 17.4 yards per return, putting him second in the SEC in both total punt return yards and average. His 70-yard return for a touchdown in the first quarter against Georgia is one of the highlights of the season, and stunned the Bulldogs.
How will Sanders fare in his second game against his home state school at the Swamp? He will have an important, potentially difference-making role, in the game. Florida is second in the SEC in net punting average (42.8 yards) and the Gators have allowed just 37 total return yards on 30 punts. That comes out to 1.2 yards per return. The looming battle between Sanders and Florida's punt coverage unit has already caught the eye of CBS color analyst Gary Danielson.
"The wildcard in this game is Ace Sanders," Danielson said. "He has really turned the tables for South Carolina when they've won. Florida punts the ball extremely well. They cover punts extremely well. Florida cannot let Sanders beat them."
4. USC will possess the ball with a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter: Last week, USC had a chance, albeit not a good one, to beat LSU with a last-second field goal had they managed to hit a couple of deep passes. But Shaw settled on throwing a couple of dump passes to Lattimore and the clock expired. The fact the losing team had a shot to win the game in the closing minutes is nothing new. This is the SEC, after all.
In the 17-13 season opening win over Vanderbilt, the Commodores had a chance to win the game in the final five minutes when they took over at their 20-yard line and drove as far as the VU 38 when a fourth down pass barely fell incomplete with 1:47 left. So, two of USC's three conference road games this season have come down to the wire. Last year, USC scored a touchdown with 3:50 left on a jump ball to Alshon Jeffery before Mississippi State launched a final desperation TD drive in the final minutes. But D.J. Swearinger laid out for a game-saving interception to preserve the victory.
USC has won eight of its last 10 games on the road. Most of those games have been close, hard-fought affairs. Chances are Saturday's game will be no different. Somebody on offense or defense will make a play in the final minute or so to decide the game. Last week, USC didn't get the job done on its final drive. They could get another opportunity this week.
5. Spurrier will be warmly
by Florida fans: During a meeting with reporters on Friday, ESPN analyst Desmond Howard asked, "Is Spurrier applauded or booed?" When told he is usually applauded by Florida fans, Howard replied, "That's good because he deserves that respect." ESPN plans a segment on Saturday morning's show showing photos of Spurrier first as a Heisman Trophy winning UF player in the mid-1960's, then as the Gators national championship winning coach and finally wearing a Gamecock visor. How will the crowed react when the third photo s shown?Spurrier didn't hide his allegiance to Florida this week, but he's loyal to South Carolina and Duke, as well. Just because he's a Florida graduate and won the Heisman Trophy playing for the Gators doesn't mean he doesn't want to beat the pants off UF, because he does. If you believe otherwise, you severely underestimate Spurrier's competitiveness. But long-time Florida supporters fondly recall what Spurrier did for the Gators program in the 1990's, lifting it to unforeseen heights. The Cult of Spurrier survives in the Sunshine State.
link: http://southcarolina.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1424669