South Carolina (4-4) squares off with Tennessee (3-5) in a divisional battle Saturday night at what should be a chilly Williams-Brice Stadium. What will happen? We have five predictions:
1. USC will produce a 100-yard rusher: A key reason USC has mostly succeeded against Tennessee in the past six years is the Gamecocks have managed to run the football. In three of the last four meetings, USC has seen a running back gain 137 or more yards against the Vols. Interestingly, those three occasions have been by different running backs - Mike Davis in 2013 (137 yards), Brandon Wilds (137 in 2011) and Marcus Lattimore (184 in 2010). The last time Tennessee stopped USC's ground attack and won the game was 2009 when USC's leading rusher had just 44 yards.
If the Tennessee defense has shown any vulnerability this season, it's the run. The Vols have allowed 140 or more yards rushing in six of eight games, 180 or more yards on three occasions, including the last two games against Ole Miss (180 yards) and Alabama (183 yards). Georgia had 289 yards on the ground against the Tennessee defense. Even Utah State (100 yds, fewest vs. UT this season), Arkansas State (141) and UT Chattanooga (105) reached the century mark in rushing against the Vols.
2. Dylan Thompson will pass for at least 275 yards: Even though Thompson has already thrown eight more interceptions this season than Connor Shaw had in 2013 - a major factor in USC's subpar minus-4 turnover margin - the Boiling Springs product is leading the Gamecock offense to unprecedented heights in terms of scoring (on pace to score 457 points and average 35.1 ppg if they play in a bowl game) and yardage (first time since 1995 USC gained 500+ yards in three straight games).
Individually, Thompson set career highs last weekend at Auburn in passing yardage (402) and TD passes (5). He ranks second in the SEC in passing yards per game (280.1) and sixth in total offense (277.5 ypg). His 402 passing yards were the fifth-best single game performance in Gamecock history, and the most by a USC QB since October of 1995. Only Steve Taneyhill (3 times in 1994-95) and Todd Ellis (1987) have thrown for more yards in a single game than Thompson.
Entering Week 10, Thompson is projected over the 12-game regular season to throw for a school record 3,362 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2014, which would surpass the records held by Ellis (3,206 yards in 1987) and Taneyhill (29 passing TDs in 1995). Regardless of the fact Tennessee is No. 2 in the SEC in passing defense, throwing the football is part of Spurrier's DNA, so Thompson should get plenty of opportunities in this one to take his steps and get vertical down the field.
3. USC will be perfect in the red zone: Considering the Gamecocks had been nearly flawless in the red zone going into last Saturday's showdown on the Plains (SEC best 27-of-28), were the well-publicized woes inside Auburn's 20-yard line (2-for-5, two INT, turn over on downs) an aberration or the start of a troubling trend for USC when they penetrate the red zone? We'll find out this week. For USC, the good news is Tennessee is last in the SEC in red zone defense with opponents going 17-for-17 against the Vols in the first eight games, meaning UT has yet to stop anybody in the red zone this season.
As a result of the disastrous 2-for-5 outing at Auburn, USC fell from first to sixth in red zone offense in the SEC with an 87.9 scoring percentage (29-of-33). All four red zone failures have come on the road. In five home games this season, USC is 20-for-20 in the red zone, while Tennessee, obviously, has allowed points every time an opponent reaches the 20-yard line in their home stadium. So, the home crowd should help the Gamecocks get back on track after one of the worst performances in the red zone of the Spurrier Era.
4. Saturday's loser will not attain bowl eligibility: For USC, Saturday's home game is critically important in terms of securing bowl eligibility. If they fall to Tennessee for the second year in a row, they would be forced to beat Florida or Clemson on the road to reach the mandatory six wins to participate in a bowl game (yes, we're putting the South Alabama game in the 'W' column). At this point in time, considering how poorly the disjointed USC defense is playing, winning in Gainesville or the Upstate seems unlikely. However, a strong defensive performance against the Vols could offer hope for those games.
For Tennessee, a loss on Saturday would be their sixth of the season and put them in the position of having to run the table against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. If you had told somebody 10 years ago that Tennessee would go four straight years without playing in a bowl game, they would have laughed hysterically at you and producers for the 'Dr. Phil Show' would have frantically called to book you as a guest. Not anymore. Since Lane Kiffin exited after one season in 2009, the Vols have played in just one bowl game, the 2010 Music City Bowl. Now we know why UT fans rioted when Kiffin announced he was leaving.
5. General Neyland will add 'Beat South Carolina!' to his famous maxims of football: Back in the bad old days of South Carolina football, otherwise known as the 1990s, Tennessee dominated the Gamecocks, winning 12 straight games until the breakthrough 2005 win for USC in Knoxville. Beginning with that victory, USC is 5-4 against Tennessee, with four victories in the last six games. Two of Tennessee's last three wins over USC have come in OT (2007) and a buzzer-beating field goal (2013).
For many long-time Tennessee fans unaware Brad Scott (is he the 'Derek Dooley of USC' or is Dooley the 'Brad Scott of Tennessee?') no longer coaches the Gamecocks, the dearth of wins over USC in recent years is disturbing, disconcerting and embarrassing, although a combination of the steady downfall of the Vols program and the rise of USC under Steve Spurrier. Neyland, the legendary UT coach, authored his seven famous maxims of football. Some are obvious such as "The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win." My favorite, though, is 'Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle -- for this is the winning edge." Still true today.
Link: https://southcarolina.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1699035
1. USC will produce a 100-yard rusher: A key reason USC has mostly succeeded against Tennessee in the past six years is the Gamecocks have managed to run the football. In three of the last four meetings, USC has seen a running back gain 137 or more yards against the Vols. Interestingly, those three occasions have been by different running backs - Mike Davis in 2013 (137 yards), Brandon Wilds (137 in 2011) and Marcus Lattimore (184 in 2010). The last time Tennessee stopped USC's ground attack and won the game was 2009 when USC's leading rusher had just 44 yards.
If the Tennessee defense has shown any vulnerability this season, it's the run. The Vols have allowed 140 or more yards rushing in six of eight games, 180 or more yards on three occasions, including the last two games against Ole Miss (180 yards) and Alabama (183 yards). Georgia had 289 yards on the ground against the Tennessee defense. Even Utah State (100 yds, fewest vs. UT this season), Arkansas State (141) and UT Chattanooga (105) reached the century mark in rushing against the Vols.
2. Dylan Thompson will pass for at least 275 yards: Even though Thompson has already thrown eight more interceptions this season than Connor Shaw had in 2013 - a major factor in USC's subpar minus-4 turnover margin - the Boiling Springs product is leading the Gamecock offense to unprecedented heights in terms of scoring (on pace to score 457 points and average 35.1 ppg if they play in a bowl game) and yardage (first time since 1995 USC gained 500+ yards in three straight games).
Individually, Thompson set career highs last weekend at Auburn in passing yardage (402) and TD passes (5). He ranks second in the SEC in passing yards per game (280.1) and sixth in total offense (277.5 ypg). His 402 passing yards were the fifth-best single game performance in Gamecock history, and the most by a USC QB since October of 1995. Only Steve Taneyhill (3 times in 1994-95) and Todd Ellis (1987) have thrown for more yards in a single game than Thompson.
Entering Week 10, Thompson is projected over the 12-game regular season to throw for a school record 3,362 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2014, which would surpass the records held by Ellis (3,206 yards in 1987) and Taneyhill (29 passing TDs in 1995). Regardless of the fact Tennessee is No. 2 in the SEC in passing defense, throwing the football is part of Spurrier's DNA, so Thompson should get plenty of opportunities in this one to take his steps and get vertical down the field.
3. USC will be perfect in the red zone: Considering the Gamecocks had been nearly flawless in the red zone going into last Saturday's showdown on the Plains (SEC best 27-of-28), were the well-publicized woes inside Auburn's 20-yard line (2-for-5, two INT, turn over on downs) an aberration or the start of a troubling trend for USC when they penetrate the red zone? We'll find out this week. For USC, the good news is Tennessee is last in the SEC in red zone defense with opponents going 17-for-17 against the Vols in the first eight games, meaning UT has yet to stop anybody in the red zone this season.
As a result of the disastrous 2-for-5 outing at Auburn, USC fell from first to sixth in red zone offense in the SEC with an 87.9 scoring percentage (29-of-33). All four red zone failures have come on the road. In five home games this season, USC is 20-for-20 in the red zone, while Tennessee, obviously, has allowed points every time an opponent reaches the 20-yard line in their home stadium. So, the home crowd should help the Gamecocks get back on track after one of the worst performances in the red zone of the Spurrier Era.
4. Saturday's loser will not attain bowl eligibility: For USC, Saturday's home game is critically important in terms of securing bowl eligibility. If they fall to Tennessee for the second year in a row, they would be forced to beat Florida or Clemson on the road to reach the mandatory six wins to participate in a bowl game (yes, we're putting the South Alabama game in the 'W' column). At this point in time, considering how poorly the disjointed USC defense is playing, winning in Gainesville or the Upstate seems unlikely. However, a strong defensive performance against the Vols could offer hope for those games.
For Tennessee, a loss on Saturday would be their sixth of the season and put them in the position of having to run the table against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. If you had told somebody 10 years ago that Tennessee would go four straight years without playing in a bowl game, they would have laughed hysterically at you and producers for the 'Dr. Phil Show' would have frantically called to book you as a guest. Not anymore. Since Lane Kiffin exited after one season in 2009, the Vols have played in just one bowl game, the 2010 Music City Bowl. Now we know why UT fans rioted when Kiffin announced he was leaving.
5. General Neyland will add 'Beat South Carolina!' to his famous maxims of football: Back in the bad old days of South Carolina football, otherwise known as the 1990s, Tennessee dominated the Gamecocks, winning 12 straight games until the breakthrough 2005 win for USC in Knoxville. Beginning with that victory, USC is 5-4 against Tennessee, with four victories in the last six games. Two of Tennessee's last three wins over USC have come in OT (2007) and a buzzer-beating field goal (2013).
For many long-time Tennessee fans unaware Brad Scott (is he the 'Derek Dooley of USC' or is Dooley the 'Brad Scott of Tennessee?') no longer coaches the Gamecocks, the dearth of wins over USC in recent years is disturbing, disconcerting and embarrassing, although a combination of the steady downfall of the Vols program and the rise of USC under Steve Spurrier. Neyland, the legendary UT coach, authored his seven famous maxims of football. Some are obvious such as "The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win." My favorite, though, is 'Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle -- for this is the winning edge." Still true today.
Link: https://southcarolina.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1699035