GAMECOCKFANATICS OFFICIAL PREVIEW & PREDICTION THREAD:
Who: Kentucky Wildcats (2-2, 0-2) vs South Carolina Gamecocks (1-3, 0-2)
When: Saturday September 28th, 2019
Kick-off: 7:30 pm ET
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
TV: SEC Network
The Gamecocks return home to Williams-Brice Stadium this Saturday and host the Kentucky Wildcats for a game that was certainly marked on the calendar before the season, at least for the Gamecocks and their fans. South Carolina will hope to turn around its fortunes for 2019 as well as break a current five-game streak in the rivalry series that has the Gamecocks on the losing side, and defeat the Wildcats for the first time since 2013.
The Coaches
USC Gamecocks
Head Coach: Will Muschamp (age 48), 4th year, 23-20 (51-41 as Head Coach)
Offensive Coordinator/Wide Receivers: Bryan McClendon
Defensive Coordinator/Defensive Backs: Travaris Robinson
Quarterbacks: Dan Werner
Running Backs: Thomas Brown
Offensive Line: Eric Wolford
Tight Ends: Bobby Bentley
Defensive Line: John Scott Jr.
Special Teams/Linebackers: Coleman Hutzler
Special Teams/Nickle Backs/Sam Linebackers: Kyle Krantz
Outside Linebackers: Mike Peterson
Kentucky Gamecocks
Head Coach: Mark Stoops (age 52), 7th year, 38-41
Assistant Head Coach (Offense)/Running Backs: Eddie Gran
Co-Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks: Darin Hinshaw
Defensive Coordinator/Outside Linebackers: Brad White
Associate Head Coach/Tight Ends/Recruiting Coordinator/NFL Liaison: Vince Marrow
Offensive Line: John Schlarman
Defensive Backs: Steve Clinkscale
Special Teams Coordinator/Defensive Backs: Dean Hood
Wide Receivers: Michael Smith
Defensive Line: Derrick Leblanc
Inside Linebackers: Jon Sumrall
The Series Match-up
South Carolina and Kentucky have squared off a total of 30 times with the Gamecocks holding a 17-12-1 advantage. Kentucky however has had the upper hand of late, owning a current active win streak of 5 games that South Carolina would dearly love to end this season. The five wins are the longest stretch of consecutive wins in the series for the Wildcats – the Gamecocks hold the longest win streak overall in the series, with a 10-game win streak running from 2000 through the 2009 season.
Key Match-ups For The Game
Team Unit Comparisons are as follows (National CFB Rankings):
Pass Offense vs Defense
USC – 62nd Pass O
UK – 85th Pass D
UK: 70th Pass O
USC: 116th Pass D
Rush Offense vs Defense
USC: 47th Run O
UK: 75th Run D
UK: 59th Run O
USC: 68th Run D
Scoring Offense vs Defense
USC: 57th Scoring O
UK: 61st Scoring D
UK: 85th Scoring O
USC: 82nd Scoring D
Total Offense vs Defense
USC: 50th Total O
UK: 78th Total D
UK: 68th Total O
USC: 100th Total D
USC edges UK in most offensive stats, but only slightly in most. Mostly it is a wash here. But offenses do not play opposing offenses in football. In defense however, Kentucky edges South Carolina in most defensive stats, and perhaps just based on flat rankings, by a larger degree in all but Run Defense. Despite UK having the better total defense numbers, USC has allowed fewer yards per play on defense than UK has, and both have allowed same # of opponent TDs (13), but USC has allowed 8 FGs to UK allowing only 3.
The big thing to possibly note on paper I guess, is that South Carolina’s SEC opponents of Alabama and Missouri are pretty much across the statistical board better offensive and defensive opponents than Kentucky’s conference opponents Florida and Mississippi State has thus far been. And the Gamecocks season-opening opponent North Carolina has to be a better opponent all around than either Toledo or Eastern Michigan – the Wildcats’ other non-conference opponents – have been for them.
So despite the level of opposing talent being tougher for USC than it has been for UK, the statistical averages are not that far off between the two teams. The biggest matchup areas of interest in my opinion for this game: #1 the South Carolina run offense versus the Kentucky run defense. Kentucky allowed 190 rushing YPG and 6 rushing TDs in 2 games against SEC opponents, versus just 115 YPG and only 3 total rush TDs in their 2 non-conference games. South Carolina has a deep RB group that has been very effective when they were given the opportunity. This game may present more of that opportunity as a need, than past games have yet to do. Key Match-up #1: The Gamecock run game needs to have a strong presence this Saturday, with the O-line blocking well. If the run game can get going, this may be an opportunity to control the game on offense and take pressure off of the Gamecock QB, whether it would be the battered Hilinski, or the back-up Joyner.
The #2 Key Match-up area – which will be for Kentucky’s advantage – will be their passing offense against our passing defense. The Gamecock Secondary is struggling mightily right now, and the depth there has gotten thinner with Jamyest Williams opting for the transfer portal. What makes this the 2nd-best Key and not the 1st, is that Kentucky’s replacement for their injured starter Terry Wilson – Jr. Sawyer Smith – has not been as consistent a passer for the Wildcats as Wilson was. Smith thus far has completed 50% of his passes with 4 TDs and 4 INTs in 3 games. So perhaps Kentucky may not be as equipped to exploit the Gamecock’s pass D as well as South Carolina may be able to take advantage of the Wildcat run D. Key Match-up #2: The Gamecock defense – especially the Secondary – needs to improve on coverage and containment, and eliminate the few key targets for UK QB Smith to pass to. The Gamecock DL also could help their cause by applying pressure on Smith.
Key Players
Once again this game will feature the QBs for each team, but for slightly different reasons. Both teams have lost their preseason projected starters at QB, and will rely on reserves for the rest of the season. In South Carolina’s case, their reserve in Ryan Hilinski has looked stellar for the first two games, but struggled in the last game against Missouri. He’s come up a bit bruised and dinged particularly his elbow, and more rest during Game Week preparations are the order of the day. Perhaps he may not dress for the game – in that case, #3 QB Dakereon Joyner would be the one to step up for his first career start. In either case however, this game is as much of a “must win” scenario for USC as there will be one for the rest of this season.
Also on offense, the RB tandems for both teams – for South Carolina, Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster, and for Kentucky Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke – will be key in this game. For USC’s sake, Dowdle and Feaster will need to have strong games, and the Gamecock front 7 need to contain the UK duo from exploding for large gains, in order to give the secondary a better focus for containing the Wildcat passing game. One UK WR target for them would be their leading receiver, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden Jr. has 27 receptions on the season – his nearest competitor on UK has 10 catches – and he’s the bonafied go-to receiver for Smith and the Wildcats. Keep him covered and hamper his impact on the game, and the Gamecock defense goes a LONG way in containing the UK passing game.
On defense, South Carolina will once again rely on DT Javon Kinlaw – the current SEC leader in QB sacks on the season, and 6th in tackles for loss (TFL). Also DE Aaron Sterling – 9th in sacks and tied with Kinlaw at 6th in TFL, will also factor in. Both DJ Wonnum and JJ Enagbare have been on the fringe of SEC leaders in sacks and TFL – this Saturday would be a great time for both to take a next step forward. And the Gamecock entire Secondary Unit – but especially Jaycee Horn and Israel Mukuamu – can make a huge difference in this game with strong efforts.
South Carolina Will Win If
If the team enters the game in Williams-Brice full of energy and executes on defense, swarms to the ball and sticks close to the Wildcat WRs, the defensive front is able to apply pressure on Smith, and the Gamecock offense is led by an effective QB (whoever it may be) and a strong rushing offense that the staff doesn’t give up on, and we have a strong chance to win this game.
Kentucky Will Win If
If the Gamecock defense continues to stumble, and the Wildcat offense is able to gash the D with huge gains, score easily and consistently, and force the Gamecock offense to once again play a rushing catch-up behind shaky QB play, Kentucky will be able to run away with the game.
Gamecock Fanatics Prediction
Kentucky 24 South Carolina 28
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