GAMECOCKFANATICS OFFICIAL PREVIEW & PREDICTION THREAD:
Who: Vanderbilt Commodores (2-5, 1-3) vs South Carolina Gamecocks (3-5, 2-4)
When: Saturday November 2, 2019
Kick-off: 7:30 pm ET
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
TV: SEC Network
The Gamecocks return home for their final conference home game of 2019, as they welcome the Commodores of Vanderbilt in an SEC-East Divisional match-up between two teams who are moving in opposite directions of late. The Gamecocks’ bowl bid chances for the season are on life-support, while the Commodores’ own chances are not that far behind. This Saturday’s game will also be a rare night game for the Gamecocks – just the second such game scheduled thus far for the season, in the 9th game. South Carolina will be looking to reverse a bad trend of two losses in a row, while the Commodores – a badly struggling team for much of their season, are coming in off of an impressive home win over previously top-25 ranked Missouri.
The Coaches
USC Gamecocks
Head Coach: Will Muschamp (age 48), 4th year, 25-22 (53-43 as Head Coach - 8th year)
Offensive Coordinator/Wide Receivers: Bryan McClendon
Defensive Coordinator/Defensive Backs: Travaris Robinson
Quarterbacks: Dan Werner
Running Backs: Thomas Brown
Offensive Line: Eric Wolford
Tight Ends: Bobby Bentley
Defensive Line: John Scott Jr.
Special Teams/Linebackers: Coleman Hutzler
Special Teams/Nickel Backs/Sam Linebackers: Kyle Krantz
Outside Linebackers: Mike Peterson
VU Commodores
Head Coach: Derek Mason (age 50), 6th year, 26-43
Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks: Gerry Gdowski
Defensive Coordinator/Inside Linebackers: Jason Tarver
Special Teams Coordinator/Tight Ends: Devin Fitzsimmons
Cornerbacks: Terrence Brown
Defensive Backs: Marc Mattioli
Running Backs: Tim Horton
Wide Receivers: Aaron Moorehead
Outside Linebackers: Matt Weikert
Defensive Line: Jovan Haye
Offensive Line: Cameron Norcross
The Series Match-up
This season's game is the 29th in the series that dates back to an odd game in 1961: the 2nd game would come as conference rivals in USC’s first year as a member of the SEC in 1992. South Carolina holds a commanding 24-4 series lead overall: Vanderbilt’s 4 wins have come in two 2-win spurts in 1998 and 1999 – the infamous 1-21 Gamecock seasons – and in 2007 and 2008. South Carolina currently holds a 10-game win streak, with an average score of 25.9-15.3. Being SEC divisional conference match-ups, the games have typically been tightly contested, however last season the Gamecocks won 37-14 in Nashville, TN – the largest margin of victory between the two schools since 2004.
Key Match-ups For The Game
Vanderbilt comes into the game with struggles along both the offense and defense. They are 14th in the SEC in six of the eight primary statistical categories: they are 10th in Passing Offense (USC is 8th), and they are 12th in Passing Defense (USC is 13th).
By far the most secure understanding of what Vanderbilt will bring on offense will be their top running back in Ke’Shawn Vaughn: Vaughn IS the Vanderbilt rushing attack at this point of their season, with 131 of their 208 carries, 703 of their 894 rushing yards, and 6 of their 7 total rushing touchdowns. He is currently the 2nd-leading rusher in the SEC behind UGA’s Swift, and with Swift one of the only 2 backs currently averaging north of 100 yds per game thus far in the season. So he’s not a secret in the SEC, but it also has not stopped Vaughn from producing at a high level this season. USC will first need to contain Vaughn’s effectiveness at running for big gains, and we will go a LONG way to nullifying the Commodore offense.
The passing game for the Commodores is much less certain. They have two transfers leading the way at QB: Ball State graduate transfer Riley Neal has been the starter for most of the season, but lost his spot to former Syracuse QB and JUCO transfer Mo Hasan against Missouri, their last game. Hasan was impressive in that game, but suffered a concussion from a targeting hit during the game, but not before the win was secured. It was the only official appearance this season for the Commodores for Hasan, but afterwards, Mason declared Hasan the starting QB going forward, with Neal as his back-up.
The Commodores had their bye week last week, so they have had an extra week to prepare for our game, but Mason stated during his pre-game presser Tuesday that Hasan was still in Concussion protocol. That doesn’t tell us if he will start this Saturday, or what practices if any he’s taken these two weeks, or perhaps its just coach-speak and Mason doesn’t wish to show his hand too soon. Whether or not the Commodore passing attack can be effective will help their rushing attack with Vaughn flourish, so this will be a key development as the week progresses. And our own passing defense has been struggling mightily lately: after the UGA game, it seems to have regressed, actually.
As for our own team personnel, Hilinski seems to have moved past his earlier arm and knee injuries, and is practicing fully with the team. Back-up QB Kerion Joyner is still recovering from his hamstring, but declared during the Gamecock pre-game presser he’s feeling as good as he has in several weeks. LB Ernest Jones and OL Sandarius Hutcherson are expected to play – OL Dylon Wonnum, RB Rico Dowdle, and DB/RB AJ Turner are out.
South Carolina Will Win If
The Gamecock defense needs to execute better against the pass. It has been taking a step back in recent games, and needs to be aggressive against QBs and WRs who have not really been consistent all season. If the defensive front seven can keep Vaughn contained (he is also the Dores’ 2nd-leading receiver) and force the Vanderbilt passing attack to move the ball, things should turn our way, but that requires the Gamecock secondary to hold the line. Vanderbilt’s offense has the 2nd-fewest turnovers in the SEC, so they won’t be hurting themselves too often this Saturday, unless we force them to.
Offensively, Hilinski and the Gamecock passing attack need to be better than it was versus Tennessee, especially on key downs. The game-plan needs to be sound as well. Vanderbilt is also last in the SEC in QB sacks and Interceptions as well, and next to last in Tackles for Loss, so the Gamecock offensive line shouldn’t be expected to be pressured too harshly, but I also thought we’d be OK versus Tennessee, and they had their game of the season against us. Feaster going off for another huge game will help as well.
Vanderbilt Will Win If
There will be very little the Gamecock coaching staff will have on film to plan for Hasan. It may not matter if our Secondary produces another stink bomb against the pass like it did last week. Vanderbilt will still feature the effectiveness of Vaughn, and pass the ball around what he can produce. The Commodores had a bye week of preparation against us, and we’re probably a little downcast from the loss last week. Hopefully the Gamecock fan-base is not, and is ready to fire up the team for a night-time SEC home game. But Vanderbilt should be fired up as well off of their Missouri win, and if we continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, the Commodores could end our win streak at 10…..
Gamecock Fanatics Prediction
South Carolina 35, Vanderbilt 24
