By now, you've probably seen the five things that South Carolina needs to have happen in order to win the SEC East. But let's break down the odds of each individual event, from most likely to least, as forecast by ESPN's Football Power Index. Then we'll assess the overall odds of every single thing breaking the Gamecocks' way.
Sounds fun, right?
1) Tennessee beats Kentucky at Neyland: 88.9 percent
A month ago, this probability would have made a ton of sense. Tennessee was undefeated and ranked in the top 10. Kentucky had just gotten pantsed by Alabama and barely survived South Carolina (I know, I know). I don't trust it nearly as much now, though. The Vols took some pent-up frustration out on Tennessee Tech on Saturday (55-0), which might have been the confidence-booster Butch Jones needed to steady the ship in Knoxville. But the fact that they've got a do-or-die game against Kentucky tells you everything you need to know.
2) Auburn beats Georgia at Sanford Stadium: 81.5 percent
Auburn never seems to beat Georgia when South Carolina needs them to (see: 2011, 2012), so Gamecock fans would be forgiven for feeling more pessimistic about this one than the numbers suggest they ought to be. But Georgia's offense doesn't really do anything well, and Auburn's defense is an absolute nightmare.
3) LSU beats Florida at Death Valley: 78.5 percent
This one passes the FPI test and the eye test. Florida is reeling and pondering a late-season QB change after their 31-10 loss to Arkansas. While LSU is in low spirits after yet another loss to 'Bama, the Tigers' defense lived up to the billing against the Crimson Tide, and they have far more explosive potential on offense than UF does. Unless something sudden happens with the coaching search and Ed Orgeron loses the locker room, this one could get ugly for the Gators.
4) Tennessee loses to Missouri or Vanderbilt: 36.1 percent
Of the things that South Carolina can't control, this is easily the least likely. Tennessee is a flawed team, but not so flawed that they can't beat Missouri and Vanderbilt when they're going into the game knowing defeat is not an option.
5) South Carolina beats Florida in The Swamp: 14.6 percent
As improved as the Gamecocks have looked and as bad as the Gators looked in Fayetteville, FPI still thinks South Carolina is a longshot in this one. But for all of FPI's virtues, it's not really built to understand how much better USC is playing with Jake Bentley running the offense.
Overall odds: 2.9 percent
The odds of these five independent events all happening makes the probability of South Carolina winning the SEC East a slender 2.9 percent. It's not great, but it's not zero.
Sounds fun, right?
1) Tennessee beats Kentucky at Neyland: 88.9 percent
A month ago, this probability would have made a ton of sense. Tennessee was undefeated and ranked in the top 10. Kentucky had just gotten pantsed by Alabama and barely survived South Carolina (I know, I know). I don't trust it nearly as much now, though. The Vols took some pent-up frustration out on Tennessee Tech on Saturday (55-0), which might have been the confidence-booster Butch Jones needed to steady the ship in Knoxville. But the fact that they've got a do-or-die game against Kentucky tells you everything you need to know.
2) Auburn beats Georgia at Sanford Stadium: 81.5 percent
Auburn never seems to beat Georgia when South Carolina needs them to (see: 2011, 2012), so Gamecock fans would be forgiven for feeling more pessimistic about this one than the numbers suggest they ought to be. But Georgia's offense doesn't really do anything well, and Auburn's defense is an absolute nightmare.
3) LSU beats Florida at Death Valley: 78.5 percent
This one passes the FPI test and the eye test. Florida is reeling and pondering a late-season QB change after their 31-10 loss to Arkansas. While LSU is in low spirits after yet another loss to 'Bama, the Tigers' defense lived up to the billing against the Crimson Tide, and they have far more explosive potential on offense than UF does. Unless something sudden happens with the coaching search and Ed Orgeron loses the locker room, this one could get ugly for the Gators.
4) Tennessee loses to Missouri or Vanderbilt: 36.1 percent
Of the things that South Carolina can't control, this is easily the least likely. Tennessee is a flawed team, but not so flawed that they can't beat Missouri and Vanderbilt when they're going into the game knowing defeat is not an option.
5) South Carolina beats Florida in The Swamp: 14.6 percent
As improved as the Gamecocks have looked and as bad as the Gators looked in Fayetteville, FPI still thinks South Carolina is a longshot in this one. But for all of FPI's virtues, it's not really built to understand how much better USC is playing with Jake Bentley running the offense.
Overall odds: 2.9 percent
The odds of these five independent events all happening makes the probability of South Carolina winning the SEC East a slender 2.9 percent. It's not great, but it's not zero.
