Usually I have a really good feel for how a game is going to go, or at least what to expect, but this year's UGA/USC game has me scratching my head a little bit. I mean, is Georgia's offense really that good? Is there defense horrible, or is it just who they've played? Can we slow them down, or have we just played inferior competition?
Rather than just compare straight up stats, I thought about another way to approach sizing up UGA's offense and defense, and how we stack up against them. What if you compared how the team's defenses did against their opponents averages over the course of the season? While trying to figure out whether Buffalo or UAB is better than the other is pointless, comparing how Georgia did against what Buffalo usually does is a better measure of the team's actual performance.
So, I sat down and crunched the following numbers: First, I found out a team's average yards per game, their average rushing and passing yards, and their average score. Then I compared that to how each team (UGA & USC) fared against that average, to come up with a percentage of how much below or above the team's average stats our teams performed that week. That allowed me to develop a baseline average of how much above or below a team's average the USC and UGA defense is allowing for the year.
When all that was said and done, it allowed me to use those averages to see how well (on paper at least) each defense should do against each offense, and what the projected yards and score should be for the game.
Without further ado, my research:
Key: first set of numbers: the yards and score from the game between the two teams. Second set of numbers: The opponents yearly average. Third set of numbers: How UGA or USC did compared to the team's average.
This led to a couple of observations... first, we didn't do that bad against Kentucky, holding them to 70% of their average offensive output....
1. We're deadly against the run. That's a good thing.
2. UGA is going to move the ball on us. Get used to it.
3. UGA's defense is a lot stouter than many of those on here are giving it credit, but nowhere near as good as most UGA fans think.
4. We really excel at scoring defense, holding teams to 50% of their average score. That signals a team that takes advantage of mistakes, is good in the red zone, and generates big plays
5. Don't be surprised if we're outgained, but we still win.
6. Home field tilts those stats even more in our direction.
So, does this mean I'm emptying the 401K and dropping it all on us to win? No. Stats are for losers, but comparing stats like these help give you a clearer picture of the teams involved. I feel a lot more comfortable about our team in comparison to UGA now, however.
So there you have it... the stats say
USC: 35
UGA: 31
Rather than just compare straight up stats, I thought about another way to approach sizing up UGA's offense and defense, and how we stack up against them. What if you compared how the team's defenses did against their opponents averages over the course of the season? While trying to figure out whether Buffalo or UAB is better than the other is pointless, comparing how Georgia did against what Buffalo usually does is a better measure of the team's actual performance.
So, I sat down and crunched the following numbers: First, I found out a team's average yards per game, their average rushing and passing yards, and their average score. Then I compared that to how each team (UGA & USC) fared against that average, to come up with a percentage of how much below or above the team's average stats our teams performed that week. That allowed me to develop a baseline average of how much above or below a team's average the USC and UGA defense is allowing for the year.
When all that was said and done, it allowed me to use those averages to see how well (on paper at least) each defense should do against each offense, and what the projected yards and score should be for the game.
Without further ado, my research:
Key: first set of numbers: the yards and score from the game between the two teams. Second set of numbers: The opponents yearly average. Third set of numbers: How UGA or USC did compared to the team's average.
This led to a couple of observations... first, we didn't do that bad against Kentucky, holding them to 70% of their average offensive output....
1. We're deadly against the run. That's a good thing.
2. UGA is going to move the ball on us. Get used to it.
3. UGA's defense is a lot stouter than many of those on here are giving it credit, but nowhere near as good as most UGA fans think.
4. We really excel at scoring defense, holding teams to 50% of their average score. That signals a team that takes advantage of mistakes, is good in the red zone, and generates big plays
5. Don't be surprised if we're outgained, but we still win.
6. Home field tilts those stats even more in our direction.
So, does this mean I'm emptying the 401K and dropping it all on us to win? No. Stats are for losers, but comparing stats like these help give you a clearer picture of the teams involved. I feel a lot more comfortable about our team in comparison to UGA now, however.
So there you have it... the stats say
USC: 35
UGA: 31
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