The college basketball season will begin soon. And the perennial question in Lexington, Kentucky, returns:
Will any team in the SEC make the race interesting for the Kentucky Wildcats?
Here's the two-word answer: probably not. Kentucky should dominate the SEC in 2016-17 because Kentucky looks like Kentucky again. Last year’s Wildcats plowed to a share of the SEC regular-season championship and the conference tournament title behind the substantial efforts of Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray.
But coach John Calipari won’t ask any player to haul the load forced upon Ulis and Murray last season because he won’t have to. That’s the luxury that comes with securing the nation’s top recruiting class, according to ESPN.com.
Calipari adds 6-foot-3 point guard De’Aaron Fox, a John Wall-like floor leader (“Tough!” per a 2015 tweet from the Washington Wizards star) and 6-foot-3 wing Malik Monk, who has the body of a 26-year-old NFL wide receiver who lifts weights twice a day. The backcourt will also feature sophomore Isaiah Briscoe, who made the wise decision to withdraw from the NBA draft and return for another season.
Only a handful of teams will enter the year with comparable potential in their backcourts. No SEC squad rivals Kentucky’s trio. How will any squad match the Briscoe-Fox-Monk lineup? And that’s not Kentucky’s only imposing strength.
Kentucky had tall guys last year. But the Wildcats lacked the grown men who’ll live in the paint this season. Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops has not made an attempt to kidnap Bam Adebayo, a 6-foot-10, 255-pound freshman. But that could happen. Isaac Humphries, the 7-footer from Australia, changed his body and attitude over the summer. He’s more aggressive and confident now. Derek Willis (44 percent from the 3-point line) could benefit the way Kyle Wiltjer did as a pick-and-pop shooter for the Wildcats in 2011-12 and 2012-13. Freshmen Wenyen Gabriel (6-foot-9), Tai Wynyard (6-foot-10) and Sacha Killeya-Jones (6-foot-10) are all here to help, too. That’s a roster with six athletes 6-foot-9 or taller.
Kentucky’s best teams in the Calipari era have thrived on talent and depth. And the 2016-17 group possesses both. That’s why the Wildcats will probably enter the season as a top-three squad nationally. It’s all there.
So what does that mean for the rest of the SEC? It ain’t good.
But we’ve listed the teams in order of their realistic potential to defeat Kentucky in the SEC race.
Possible Threats
Texas A&M: Last year, Texas A&M reached the Sweet 16 as Alex Caruso, Anthony Collins, Danuel House and Jalen Jones accrued more than 43 points combined per game. They’re all gone now. So Billy Kennedy’s squad will rely on Tyler Davis (11.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), the solid returnees around him and a trio of top-100 recruits (Robert Williams, J.J. Caldwell and Deshawn Corprew). Like Kentucky, Texas A&M will ask its underclassmen to mature fast and battle early. Davis is a force and he’s backed by enough talent to make the NCAA tournament a realistic aspiration. Hard to imagine this group stealing the crown from Kentucky, though.
Florida: Mike White adds grad transfer Canyon Barry (19.7 PPG at Charleston in 2015-16) to a team that returns John Egbunu (11.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and KeVaughn Allen (11.6 PPG). The Gators won 21 games last season. They should surpass that tally this season and improve upon last year’s 9-9 record in the SEC, especially with Barry’s arrival on a team that finished 84th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings last season. They can’t, however, match Kentucky’s power in the post or athleticism on the perimeter.
Intriguing Sleepers
Georgia: The Bulldogs won’t win the SEC, but they could reach the NCAA tournament if J.J. Frazier (16.9 PPG) and Yante Maten (15.7 PPG) bond with newcomer Tyree Crump, a four-star recruit from Bainbridge, Georgia. They’re not ready for Kentucky, though.
Arkansas: Mike Anderson has reached the NCAA tournament just once since he was hired in 2011, and there is no guarantee that Arkansas will make the 2017 tournament. But junior college stars Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon could form an intriguing lineup with Moses Kingsley (15.9 PPG) and Dusty Hannahs (16.5 PPG). Veteran guard Anton Beard returns, too. But have the Razorbacks fixed a defense that surrendered 80 points or more in eight losses last year?
Vanderbilt: Bryce Drew’s new squad lost Wade Baldwin and Damian Jones. So he’ll rely on Matthew Fisher-Davis (9.7 PPG), Luke Kornet (8.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Jeff Roberson (9.3 PPG). It's doubtful the Commodores will match or exceed last season’s 11-7 record in the SEC. This is a solid team but, on paper, is no threat to Kentucky’s SEC title hopes.
Ole Miss: Grad transfer Cullen Neal (12.3 PPG) will help Andy Kennedy’s squad. But the Rebels don’t have enough to contend.
South Carolina: Could Sindarius Thornwell (13.4 PPG) put together an all-conference effort in 2016-17? Yep. That alone, however, won’t help Frank Martin’s squad recover from the collective loss of standouts Michael Carrera (14.5 PPG), Laimonas Chatkevicius (10.2 PPG) and Mindaugas Kacinas (9.9 PPG).
Alabama: Memphis transfer Nick King should help Avery Johnson take the next step in Alabama’s elevation. But the Crimson Tide aren’t ready to move into the top tier of the league. Yet.
Auburn: Ditto for an Auburn team that added Mustapha Heron to a roster stocked with young talent that could turn the Tigers into an SEC contender a year from now.
Will any team in the SEC make the race interesting for the Kentucky Wildcats?
Here's the two-word answer: probably not. Kentucky should dominate the SEC in 2016-17 because Kentucky looks like Kentucky again. Last year’s Wildcats plowed to a share of the SEC regular-season championship and the conference tournament title behind the substantial efforts of Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray.
But coach John Calipari won’t ask any player to haul the load forced upon Ulis and Murray last season because he won’t have to. That’s the luxury that comes with securing the nation’s top recruiting class, according to ESPN.com.
Calipari adds 6-foot-3 point guard De’Aaron Fox, a John Wall-like floor leader (“Tough!” per a 2015 tweet from the Washington Wizards star) and 6-foot-3 wing Malik Monk, who has the body of a 26-year-old NFL wide receiver who lifts weights twice a day. The backcourt will also feature sophomore Isaiah Briscoe, who made the wise decision to withdraw from the NBA draft and return for another season.
Only a handful of teams will enter the year with comparable potential in their backcourts. No SEC squad rivals Kentucky’s trio. How will any squad match the Briscoe-Fox-Monk lineup? And that’s not Kentucky’s only imposing strength.
Kentucky had tall guys last year. But the Wildcats lacked the grown men who’ll live in the paint this season. Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops has not made an attempt to kidnap Bam Adebayo, a 6-foot-10, 255-pound freshman. But that could happen. Isaac Humphries, the 7-footer from Australia, changed his body and attitude over the summer. He’s more aggressive and confident now. Derek Willis (44 percent from the 3-point line) could benefit the way Kyle Wiltjer did as a pick-and-pop shooter for the Wildcats in 2011-12 and 2012-13. Freshmen Wenyen Gabriel (6-foot-9), Tai Wynyard (6-foot-10) and Sacha Killeya-Jones (6-foot-10) are all here to help, too. That’s a roster with six athletes 6-foot-9 or taller.
Kentucky’s best teams in the Calipari era have thrived on talent and depth. And the 2016-17 group possesses both. That’s why the Wildcats will probably enter the season as a top-three squad nationally. It’s all there.
So what does that mean for the rest of the SEC? It ain’t good.
But we’ve listed the teams in order of their realistic potential to defeat Kentucky in the SEC race.
Possible Threats
Texas A&M: Last year, Texas A&M reached the Sweet 16 as Alex Caruso, Anthony Collins, Danuel House and Jalen Jones accrued more than 43 points combined per game. They’re all gone now. So Billy Kennedy’s squad will rely on Tyler Davis (11.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), the solid returnees around him and a trio of top-100 recruits (Robert Williams, J.J. Caldwell and Deshawn Corprew). Like Kentucky, Texas A&M will ask its underclassmen to mature fast and battle early. Davis is a force and he’s backed by enough talent to make the NCAA tournament a realistic aspiration. Hard to imagine this group stealing the crown from Kentucky, though.
Florida: Mike White adds grad transfer Canyon Barry (19.7 PPG at Charleston in 2015-16) to a team that returns John Egbunu (11.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and KeVaughn Allen (11.6 PPG). The Gators won 21 games last season. They should surpass that tally this season and improve upon last year’s 9-9 record in the SEC, especially with Barry’s arrival on a team that finished 84th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings last season. They can’t, however, match Kentucky’s power in the post or athleticism on the perimeter.
Intriguing Sleepers
Georgia: The Bulldogs won’t win the SEC, but they could reach the NCAA tournament if J.J. Frazier (16.9 PPG) and Yante Maten (15.7 PPG) bond with newcomer Tyree Crump, a four-star recruit from Bainbridge, Georgia. They’re not ready for Kentucky, though.
Arkansas: Mike Anderson has reached the NCAA tournament just once since he was hired in 2011, and there is no guarantee that Arkansas will make the 2017 tournament. But junior college stars Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon could form an intriguing lineup with Moses Kingsley (15.9 PPG) and Dusty Hannahs (16.5 PPG). Veteran guard Anton Beard returns, too. But have the Razorbacks fixed a defense that surrendered 80 points or more in eight losses last year?
Vanderbilt: Bryce Drew’s new squad lost Wade Baldwin and Damian Jones. So he’ll rely on Matthew Fisher-Davis (9.7 PPG), Luke Kornet (8.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Jeff Roberson (9.3 PPG). It's doubtful the Commodores will match or exceed last season’s 11-7 record in the SEC. This is a solid team but, on paper, is no threat to Kentucky’s SEC title hopes.
Ole Miss: Grad transfer Cullen Neal (12.3 PPG) will help Andy Kennedy’s squad. But the Rebels don’t have enough to contend.
South Carolina: Could Sindarius Thornwell (13.4 PPG) put together an all-conference effort in 2016-17? Yep. That alone, however, won’t help Frank Martin’s squad recover from the collective loss of standouts Michael Carrera (14.5 PPG), Laimonas Chatkevicius (10.2 PPG) and Mindaugas Kacinas (9.9 PPG).
Alabama: Memphis transfer Nick King should help Avery Johnson take the next step in Alabama’s elevation. But the Crimson Tide aren’t ready to move into the top tier of the league. Yet.
Auburn: Ditto for an Auburn team that added Mustapha Heron to a roster stocked with young talent that could turn the Tigers into an SEC contender a year from now.