Recruiting Rankings Do Matter
Below is the average ranking for the trailing 4 years for teams who have played in the Playoff or National Championship game for the past 10 years. Rankings are based on Rivals.com team rankings. There are 28 teams accounted for (12 for the 6 years of 2-team BCS Championship Game, 16 for the 4 years of the 4-team Playoff).
Example-
Team X was ranked 10, 12, 8, 10 in the 4 years leading up to a playoff appearance. The average ranking would be 10.
It's all right here in black and white, friends. There is an obvious and undeniable correlation between making the playoff/winning it all and having Top 10-15 recruiting classes in the 4 years leading up to it. Does having Top 10 classes mean you will make the playoff? Nope. Do you have to have Top 10 classes to make the playoff? Probably. Do you have to have Top 10 classes to win it all? Almost certainly.
Are there outliers? Sure. 5 of the 28 teams' average was outside the Top 15. None of them won it all, 3 of them got absolutely abused (whether it be in the championship or in the first round). All of them came from what we would consider weaker conferences in that year.
I don't want to speculate too much on what this means for us and our chances of being a playoff contender. This data would suggest we are at least a few years out. Could this class, coupled with a few Top 10's, get us to that level? Absolutely.
In conclusion- Are rankings everything? No. Are coaches looking at their Rivals.com ranking and taking it seriously? Probably not. Is there a correlation between making the playoff, winning championships, and having Top 10/15 classes? No doubt.
___________________________
Game - Average Team Ranking in Trailing 4 Years
Past 10 Years
Championship Game- 7.20
National Champion- 4.50
BCS Era
Championship Game- 7.67
National Champion- 4.71
Playoff Era
Final 4- 10.14
Championship Game- 6.50
National Champion- 4.19
Past 10 Years, 28 teams accounted for
Number in Top 10- 19 out of 28
Number in Top 15- 23 out of 28
Number Outside Top 15- 5 out 28
Outliers-
2010 Oregon- 18.75 - Lost in Championship Game
2012 Notre Dame- 16.25 - Got absolutely smitherened in Championship Game
2014 Oregon- 18.25- Got smoked in Championship Game
2015 Michigan State- 31.25- Got absolutely shellacked in playoff
2016 Washington- 30.25- Got handled in playoff
_______________________________________
Team- Average Ranking For Trailing 4 Years - (Trailing 4 years team ranking)
2008
*Florida- 5.25 (15, 2, 1, 3)
Oklahoma- 8.00 (3, 9, 14, 6)
2009
*Alabama- 5.75 (11, 10, 1, 1)
Texas- 7.25 (5, 5, 14, 5)
2010
*Auburn- 7.75 (7, 20, 19, 4)
Oregon- 18.75 (11, 19, 32, 13)
2011
*Alabama- 2.00 (1, 1, 5, 1)
LSU- 6.25 (11, 2, 6, 6)
2012
*Alabama- 2.00 (1, 5, 1, 1)
Notre Dame- 16.25 (21, 14, 10, 20)
2013
*Florida State- 5.50 (10, 2, 6, 4)
Auburn- 7.25 (4, 7, 10, 8)
2014
Alabama- 1.00 (1, 1, 1, 1)
*Ohio State- 5.00 (11, 4, 2, 3)
**Oregon- 18.25 (9, 16, 22, 26)
Florida State- 5.5 (2, 6, 10, 4)
2015
*Alabama- 1.25 (1, 1, 1, 2)
**Clemson- 10.50 (11, 14, 13, 4)
Michigan State- 31.25 (41, 40, 22, 22)
Oklahoma- 13.75 (11, 15, 15, 14)
2016
**Alabama- 1.25 (1, 1, 2, 1)
*Clemson- 9.25 (14, 13, 4, 6)
Ohio State- 4.25 (2, 3, 9, 3)
Washington- 30.25 (18, 36, 30, 37)
2017
*Alabama- 1.25 (1, 2, 1, 1)
Clemson- 11.25 (13, 4, 6, 22)
**Georgia- 5.25 (7, 6, 9, 3)
Oklahoma- 13.00 (15, 14,16, 7)
__________________________________________
*National Champion
**Playoff Runner Up
Below is the average ranking for the trailing 4 years for teams who have played in the Playoff or National Championship game for the past 10 years. Rankings are based on Rivals.com team rankings. There are 28 teams accounted for (12 for the 6 years of 2-team BCS Championship Game, 16 for the 4 years of the 4-team Playoff).
Example-
Team X was ranked 10, 12, 8, 10 in the 4 years leading up to a playoff appearance. The average ranking would be 10.
It's all right here in black and white, friends. There is an obvious and undeniable correlation between making the playoff/winning it all and having Top 10-15 recruiting classes in the 4 years leading up to it. Does having Top 10 classes mean you will make the playoff? Nope. Do you have to have Top 10 classes to make the playoff? Probably. Do you have to have Top 10 classes to win it all? Almost certainly.
Are there outliers? Sure. 5 of the 28 teams' average was outside the Top 15. None of them won it all, 3 of them got absolutely abused (whether it be in the championship or in the first round). All of them came from what we would consider weaker conferences in that year.
I don't want to speculate too much on what this means for us and our chances of being a playoff contender. This data would suggest we are at least a few years out. Could this class, coupled with a few Top 10's, get us to that level? Absolutely.
In conclusion- Are rankings everything? No. Are coaches looking at their Rivals.com ranking and taking it seriously? Probably not. Is there a correlation between making the playoff, winning championships, and having Top 10/15 classes? No doubt.
___________________________
Game - Average Team Ranking in Trailing 4 Years
Past 10 Years
Championship Game- 7.20
National Champion- 4.50
BCS Era
Championship Game- 7.67
National Champion- 4.71
Playoff Era
Final 4- 10.14
Championship Game- 6.50
National Champion- 4.19
Past 10 Years, 28 teams accounted for
Number in Top 10- 19 out of 28
Number in Top 15- 23 out of 28
Number Outside Top 15- 5 out 28
Outliers-
2010 Oregon- 18.75 - Lost in Championship Game
2012 Notre Dame- 16.25 - Got absolutely smitherened in Championship Game
2014 Oregon- 18.25- Got smoked in Championship Game
2015 Michigan State- 31.25- Got absolutely shellacked in playoff
2016 Washington- 30.25- Got handled in playoff
_______________________________________
Team- Average Ranking For Trailing 4 Years - (Trailing 4 years team ranking)
2008
*Florida- 5.25 (15, 2, 1, 3)
Oklahoma- 8.00 (3, 9, 14, 6)
2009
*Alabama- 5.75 (11, 10, 1, 1)
Texas- 7.25 (5, 5, 14, 5)
2010
*Auburn- 7.75 (7, 20, 19, 4)
Oregon- 18.75 (11, 19, 32, 13)
2011
*Alabama- 2.00 (1, 1, 5, 1)
LSU- 6.25 (11, 2, 6, 6)
2012
*Alabama- 2.00 (1, 5, 1, 1)
Notre Dame- 16.25 (21, 14, 10, 20)
2013
*Florida State- 5.50 (10, 2, 6, 4)
Auburn- 7.25 (4, 7, 10, 8)
2014
Alabama- 1.00 (1, 1, 1, 1)
*Ohio State- 5.00 (11, 4, 2, 3)
**Oregon- 18.25 (9, 16, 22, 26)
Florida State- 5.5 (2, 6, 10, 4)
2015
*Alabama- 1.25 (1, 1, 1, 2)
**Clemson- 10.50 (11, 14, 13, 4)
Michigan State- 31.25 (41, 40, 22, 22)
Oklahoma- 13.75 (11, 15, 15, 14)
2016
**Alabama- 1.25 (1, 1, 2, 1)
*Clemson- 9.25 (14, 13, 4, 6)
Ohio State- 4.25 (2, 3, 9, 3)
Washington- 30.25 (18, 36, 30, 37)
2017
*Alabama- 1.25 (1, 2, 1, 1)
Clemson- 11.25 (13, 4, 6, 22)
**Georgia- 5.25 (7, 6, 9, 3)
Oklahoma- 13.00 (15, 14,16, 7)
__________________________________________
*National Champion
**Playoff Runner Up