http://kentucky.rivals.com/showmsg.asp? ... 88&style=2
Breaking down the Cats and Cocks Reply
Another week, another top 25 opponent. So goes life in the Southeastern Conference. This week, the Cats host #6 South Carolina. The last time South Carolina came to Lexington ranked in the top 10 (2010), they left with a loss. Kentucky scored 21 unanswered points in the 2nd half then picked off Stephen Garcia in the final seconds to end a 10 game losing skid against the Cocks. When UK visited South Carolina last season, Spurrier got his revenge to the tune of a 51-point beatdown. This season's game should feature a much improved UK offense (allegedly, Maxwell Smith is going to play this weekend) along with the best defense in the SEC East. The Gamecocks are thinking national championship. I'm not really sure what Kentucky's thinking. The Cats season has gotten off to a worse case scenario start. Humiliating losses to Louisville and Western Kentucky. A beatdown loss at Florida. Time is running out for Coach Phillips to turn things around. South Carolina begins a crucial three game stretch that features two home games and a trip to struggling Arkansas. A win this weekend would certainly be the jump start this team needs to erase the poor first 3rd of the season. Do the Cats have enough to upset the Cocks, or will SC steamroll their way through Lexington?
Series
South Carolina leads 15-7-1
Kentucky led 6-4-1 through the 1999 season
Last season: South Carolina 54 Kentucky 3
Last UK win (2010): Kentucky 31 South Carolina 28
Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Advantage South Carolina
Of the SEC defenses I've seen this year, only Alabama is better. South Carolina has the rare ability of pressuring opposing backfields without blitzing. The Gamecocks have two of the best DE's (Taylor and Clowney) in all of college football (led by Jadevenon Clowney). Clowny is projected by many to be a high first round pick, and he's only a SOPH. He already has 4.5 sacks on the young season. Clowney/Taylor have combined for 28 career sacks. Overall, this SC defense is very athletic and talented (will most likely be the most talented defense UK faces this season). It will be interesting to see what changes we see with UK's scheme in an attempt to block Clowney and Taylor. UK runs a quick passing game, so they won't have to double Clowney and/or Taylor on every down. On third and long though, you have to account for at least one of them with a double team. If UK runs much MAX protect, that means fewer receivers running routes, which results in SC having an easier time defending UK's receivers. Last week, Kentucky had some success running the ball down at Florida. I seriously doubt that repeats itself. SC's front seven is among the 3-4 most talented in the nation. The Cats do have the good fortune of getting Maxwell Smith back. Smith was sorely missed last week when UK essentially had no passing game at all. The key for UK this week will be making plays in the open field with their receivers. Kentucky likely isn't going to run the ball with much success. Considering SC's pass rush ability, I doubt UK calls many deep routes. That means short stuff, which means the Cats have to be able to beat SC's defenders one on one (they failed more often than not in this capacity against WKU) with the ball in their hands. Best case for UK, they hit a couple of big plays with YAC. Worse case, SC's front four dominates the matchup.
Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Advantage South Carolina
If there was a positive last week, it was the play of UK's defense early in the game. The Cats held Florida to just 10 points on their first five possessions. A number of UK youngsters played fairly well at Florida (including CB Cody Quinn). The absence of Mister Cobble resulted in some young lineman seeing more reps. Rick Minter said he was happy with the play of Tristian Johnson and Chris Coleman but noted that both just don't have a lot of size at this point (got knocked around a bit according to Minter). If Cobble is unable to go again this week, that's a huge hit. The Cats young linebackers seem to be getting better, but they'll be severely challenged by SC's athleticism and experience. The ol' ball coach brings the best running back in the SEC to Lexington, Marcus Lattimore. The Heisman Trophy candidate is averaging 4.6 ypc. QB Connor Shaw has battled injuries, but he finished off last weeks win against Missouri in stellar fashion (completing his final 20 passes). Shaw can also pull the ball down and run, so the Cats defense is again dealing with a dual threat QB. The SC o-front is fairly young (three SO starters), so maybe UK can have some success in the trenches. Without Cobble though, that's hard to see happening. Overall, this is just a tough matchup for UK. SC can run the ball effectively. Shaw has completed 76% of his passes this season. South Carolina has plenty of athletic ability across the board at the skill positions. Making matters most worrisome is UK's woeful performance on 3rd down. Against Florida, the Cats allowed the Gators to convert 12 of 17 times. With UK's general inability to pressure the passer, third down is likely to be an unfriendly down yet again this weekend. Best case scenario, UK figures out a way to get to Shaw (while keeping him in the pocket) thus getting off the field on 3rd down. Worse case, South Carolina moves the football at will like last year.
Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
Ace Sanders ranks 19th nationally in punt returns (16.3). Demarcus Sweat of Kentucky ranks 27th in KO returns (25.9). Hopefully, Sweat doesn't get many kick return opportunities this weekend . Both teams have solid kickers, but Craig McIntosh has been surprisingly disappointing this season, converting on just 2 of 6 fiel goal attempts (ranking last in college football). Adam Yates of SC has attempted just three FG's (2-3).
Kentucky will win if....they take advantage of EVERY scoring opportunity (i.e., 7 points, not FG attempts), break the trend of giving the football away, and get off the field on third down defensively. They aren't going to beat South Carolina *straight up* so to speak, so they'll need either a +2 or more TO margin or a special teams/defensive score.
South Carolina will win if.....they take care of the football, do their thing defensively (own the LOS with just four men), and avoid allowing multiple big plays. Clearly, South Carolina doesn't have to play a perfect game to win, but early mistakes could allow UK to hang around. That's when upsets happen.
Prediction.....South Carolina 38 Kentucky 17.....It's hard to see the Cats doing a whole lot against the Gamecocks. SC is dominant on defense and very good on offense. Last year, South Carolina outgained Kentucky 32-6 on first downs and a RIDICULOUS 639-96 in total yards. It was one of the most lopsided games in UK football history. That domination won't repeat itself, but South Carolina should win with relative ease.
Previous Picks
Louisville 27 Kentucky 17 (Louisville won 32-14)
Kentucky 38 Kent State 21 (Kentucky won 47-14)
Kentucky 38 Western Kentucky 24 (WKU won 32-31 )
Florida 48 Kentucky 14 (Florida won 38-0)
Breaking down the Cats and Cocks Reply
Another week, another top 25 opponent. So goes life in the Southeastern Conference. This week, the Cats host #6 South Carolina. The last time South Carolina came to Lexington ranked in the top 10 (2010), they left with a loss. Kentucky scored 21 unanswered points in the 2nd half then picked off Stephen Garcia in the final seconds to end a 10 game losing skid against the Cocks. When UK visited South Carolina last season, Spurrier got his revenge to the tune of a 51-point beatdown. This season's game should feature a much improved UK offense (allegedly, Maxwell Smith is going to play this weekend) along with the best defense in the SEC East. The Gamecocks are thinking national championship. I'm not really sure what Kentucky's thinking. The Cats season has gotten off to a worse case scenario start. Humiliating losses to Louisville and Western Kentucky. A beatdown loss at Florida. Time is running out for Coach Phillips to turn things around. South Carolina begins a crucial three game stretch that features two home games and a trip to struggling Arkansas. A win this weekend would certainly be the jump start this team needs to erase the poor first 3rd of the season. Do the Cats have enough to upset the Cocks, or will SC steamroll their way through Lexington?
Series
South Carolina leads 15-7-1
Kentucky led 6-4-1 through the 1999 season
Last season: South Carolina 54 Kentucky 3
Last UK win (2010): Kentucky 31 South Carolina 28
Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Advantage South Carolina
Of the SEC defenses I've seen this year, only Alabama is better. South Carolina has the rare ability of pressuring opposing backfields without blitzing. The Gamecocks have two of the best DE's (Taylor and Clowney) in all of college football (led by Jadevenon Clowney). Clowny is projected by many to be a high first round pick, and he's only a SOPH. He already has 4.5 sacks on the young season. Clowney/Taylor have combined for 28 career sacks. Overall, this SC defense is very athletic and talented (will most likely be the most talented defense UK faces this season). It will be interesting to see what changes we see with UK's scheme in an attempt to block Clowney and Taylor. UK runs a quick passing game, so they won't have to double Clowney and/or Taylor on every down. On third and long though, you have to account for at least one of them with a double team. If UK runs much MAX protect, that means fewer receivers running routes, which results in SC having an easier time defending UK's receivers. Last week, Kentucky had some success running the ball down at Florida. I seriously doubt that repeats itself. SC's front seven is among the 3-4 most talented in the nation. The Cats do have the good fortune of getting Maxwell Smith back. Smith was sorely missed last week when UK essentially had no passing game at all. The key for UK this week will be making plays in the open field with their receivers. Kentucky likely isn't going to run the ball with much success. Considering SC's pass rush ability, I doubt UK calls many deep routes. That means short stuff, which means the Cats have to be able to beat SC's defenders one on one (they failed more often than not in this capacity against WKU) with the ball in their hands. Best case for UK, they hit a couple of big plays with YAC. Worse case, SC's front four dominates the matchup.
Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Advantage South Carolina
If there was a positive last week, it was the play of UK's defense early in the game. The Cats held Florida to just 10 points on their first five possessions. A number of UK youngsters played fairly well at Florida (including CB Cody Quinn). The absence of Mister Cobble resulted in some young lineman seeing more reps. Rick Minter said he was happy with the play of Tristian Johnson and Chris Coleman but noted that both just don't have a lot of size at this point (got knocked around a bit according to Minter). If Cobble is unable to go again this week, that's a huge hit. The Cats young linebackers seem to be getting better, but they'll be severely challenged by SC's athleticism and experience. The ol' ball coach brings the best running back in the SEC to Lexington, Marcus Lattimore. The Heisman Trophy candidate is averaging 4.6 ypc. QB Connor Shaw has battled injuries, but he finished off last weeks win against Missouri in stellar fashion (completing his final 20 passes). Shaw can also pull the ball down and run, so the Cats defense is again dealing with a dual threat QB. The SC o-front is fairly young (three SO starters), so maybe UK can have some success in the trenches. Without Cobble though, that's hard to see happening. Overall, this is just a tough matchup for UK. SC can run the ball effectively. Shaw has completed 76% of his passes this season. South Carolina has plenty of athletic ability across the board at the skill positions. Making matters most worrisome is UK's woeful performance on 3rd down. Against Florida, the Cats allowed the Gators to convert 12 of 17 times. With UK's general inability to pressure the passer, third down is likely to be an unfriendly down yet again this weekend. Best case scenario, UK figures out a way to get to Shaw (while keeping him in the pocket) thus getting off the field on 3rd down. Worse case, South Carolina moves the football at will like last year.
Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
Ace Sanders ranks 19th nationally in punt returns (16.3). Demarcus Sweat of Kentucky ranks 27th in KO returns (25.9). Hopefully, Sweat doesn't get many kick return opportunities this weekend . Both teams have solid kickers, but Craig McIntosh has been surprisingly disappointing this season, converting on just 2 of 6 fiel goal attempts (ranking last in college football). Adam Yates of SC has attempted just three FG's (2-3).
Kentucky will win if....they take advantage of EVERY scoring opportunity (i.e., 7 points, not FG attempts), break the trend of giving the football away, and get off the field on third down defensively. They aren't going to beat South Carolina *straight up* so to speak, so they'll need either a +2 or more TO margin or a special teams/defensive score.
South Carolina will win if.....they take care of the football, do their thing defensively (own the LOS with just four men), and avoid allowing multiple big plays. Clearly, South Carolina doesn't have to play a perfect game to win, but early mistakes could allow UK to hang around. That's when upsets happen.
Prediction.....South Carolina 38 Kentucky 17.....It's hard to see the Cats doing a whole lot against the Gamecocks. SC is dominant on defense and very good on offense. Last year, South Carolina outgained Kentucky 32-6 on first downs and a RIDICULOUS 639-96 in total yards. It was one of the most lopsided games in UK football history. That domination won't repeat itself, but South Carolina should win with relative ease.
Previous Picks
Louisville 27 Kentucky 17 (Louisville won 32-14)
Kentucky 38 Kent State 21 (Kentucky won 47-14)
Kentucky 38 Western Kentucky 24 (WKU won 32-31 )
Florida 48 Kentucky 14 (Florida won 38-0)
