doublea1971
GCF Top Poster
I'm really looking forward to the USC/Auburn game. This will tell us a great deal about our team. Overall, I believe we match up quite well with them. And I think we have a strong advantage with our Coach. Frank Martin seems to be able to get inside the head of Bruce Pearl, causing Pearl to make bad decisions with substitutions and defensive calls.
Here is some of what you can expect to see:
Generally speaking, Auburn runs about a 7 man bench. You'll generally see the starters Daughty, Okoro, McCormick, Wiley and Purifoy and then McLemore off the bench pretty quickly. Johnson and Flanigan will get some minutes, but limited in their time on the court.
Expect to see a LOT of 3 point shots launched, but as long as USC is contesting well, Auburn isn't a huge threat from behind the arc. Daughty and Purifoy will take the most, but both are hitting below .300 (.280 and .217 in conference play respectively). Compare that to USC who are attempting less than Auburn, but we have 4 players ABOVE .300 in their makes. Expect an advantage for the 'Cocks from the outside. If we are able to establish an inside presence early, we'll likely see the threes start to fall against Auburn.
Speaking of inside presence, Auburn has one of the best in the league in Austin Wiley. The guy is a MACHINE on the glass offensively and defensively. He will likely give us a lot of headaches on the interior, and we'll see a rotating chorus of our bigs (Kotsar, McCreary, Frink, Leveque) just to stay out of foul trouble defending against Wiley's play. The thing about Wiley, however, is that his motor runs so high trying to grab the ball off the glass that he's limited in his minutes per game. If we can get someone to defend him well WITHOUT committing fouls, Wiley can be frustrated by USC's interior. If that happens, expect to see Wiley run out of gas early in both halves and see the bench more often. If we can force him to play really physical (which we have the luxury of being able to do), expect to see Wiley getting early fouls and seeing the bench earlier as well. I think the pure numbers for offensive/defensive rebounds give USC the edge on the offensive glass. On the defensive glass, we've got our work cut out for us, as Dante Purifoy is also a great defensive rebounder.
6'4 guard, Samir Doughty is Auburn's leading scorer. He's going to be their "iron man", and see the floor most of the game. He's also going to launch a lot of 3 pointers. With Doughty, he can be frustrated IF we are able to play tough-nosed as a team offensively. Doughty is quite prone to foul, leading their squad in number of fouls committed in conference play. But Doughty has played smart vs. FL. and 'Bama. He's the cog that makes the engine run smoothly for Auburn, so expect to see Frank Martin keying on Doughty defensively. (In my mind, that means that we'll likely see a Doughty vs. Minaya matchup, with Lawson cheating on Doughty as much as possible).
The other threat is Alex Okoro. He's their 2nd leading scorer, and plays well off of the energy of Wiley. Okoro is an efficient shooter. He doesn't take many bad shots. He's got quick hands defensively, and he likes to block shots as well. His weakness is that he is turnover prone when he's playing too quickly. Get in his head early, and make him THINK about what he's doing (he's an instinctive player, in my estimation), and he falls with the best of them in the league.
I see it this way... If USC comes in with a strong defensive plan against Doughty and against Wiley, we can frustrate much of what makes Auburn so hard to beat. As a team, we're built to play well against their strengths - we've got a pretty deep bench of bigs, who can wear down their strength on the glass. And we've got strong (and long) defensive guard play to counter balance Auburn's abilities there.
Our speed vs. their speed, however, could be a problem. We're an up-tempo team, but so is Auburn. And Doughty and J'Von McCormack are fast paced guards, who see the floor quite well. If USC plays the lanes soft and allows the slashing moves to the basket, we could be in trouble early.
I like our chances against Auburn, but we will need to establish an interior game to make the exterior shooting work well for us. If we keep them honest, so that they don't cheat to the outside and press us to shoot from too far out, I think we win this one. My prediction - 78-71 in a tight one to the last 1:25 of the game.
Here is some of what you can expect to see:
Generally speaking, Auburn runs about a 7 man bench. You'll generally see the starters Daughty, Okoro, McCormick, Wiley and Purifoy and then McLemore off the bench pretty quickly. Johnson and Flanigan will get some minutes, but limited in their time on the court.
Expect to see a LOT of 3 point shots launched, but as long as USC is contesting well, Auburn isn't a huge threat from behind the arc. Daughty and Purifoy will take the most, but both are hitting below .300 (.280 and .217 in conference play respectively). Compare that to USC who are attempting less than Auburn, but we have 4 players ABOVE .300 in their makes. Expect an advantage for the 'Cocks from the outside. If we are able to establish an inside presence early, we'll likely see the threes start to fall against Auburn.
Speaking of inside presence, Auburn has one of the best in the league in Austin Wiley. The guy is a MACHINE on the glass offensively and defensively. He will likely give us a lot of headaches on the interior, and we'll see a rotating chorus of our bigs (Kotsar, McCreary, Frink, Leveque) just to stay out of foul trouble defending against Wiley's play. The thing about Wiley, however, is that his motor runs so high trying to grab the ball off the glass that he's limited in his minutes per game. If we can get someone to defend him well WITHOUT committing fouls, Wiley can be frustrated by USC's interior. If that happens, expect to see Wiley run out of gas early in both halves and see the bench more often. If we can force him to play really physical (which we have the luxury of being able to do), expect to see Wiley getting early fouls and seeing the bench earlier as well. I think the pure numbers for offensive/defensive rebounds give USC the edge on the offensive glass. On the defensive glass, we've got our work cut out for us, as Dante Purifoy is also a great defensive rebounder.
6'4 guard, Samir Doughty is Auburn's leading scorer. He's going to be their "iron man", and see the floor most of the game. He's also going to launch a lot of 3 pointers. With Doughty, he can be frustrated IF we are able to play tough-nosed as a team offensively. Doughty is quite prone to foul, leading their squad in number of fouls committed in conference play. But Doughty has played smart vs. FL. and 'Bama. He's the cog that makes the engine run smoothly for Auburn, so expect to see Frank Martin keying on Doughty defensively. (In my mind, that means that we'll likely see a Doughty vs. Minaya matchup, with Lawson cheating on Doughty as much as possible).
The other threat is Alex Okoro. He's their 2nd leading scorer, and plays well off of the energy of Wiley. Okoro is an efficient shooter. He doesn't take many bad shots. He's got quick hands defensively, and he likes to block shots as well. His weakness is that he is turnover prone when he's playing too quickly. Get in his head early, and make him THINK about what he's doing (he's an instinctive player, in my estimation), and he falls with the best of them in the league.
I see it this way... If USC comes in with a strong defensive plan against Doughty and against Wiley, we can frustrate much of what makes Auburn so hard to beat. As a team, we're built to play well against their strengths - we've got a pretty deep bench of bigs, who can wear down their strength on the glass. And we've got strong (and long) defensive guard play to counter balance Auburn's abilities there.
Our speed vs. their speed, however, could be a problem. We're an up-tempo team, but so is Auburn. And Doughty and J'Von McCormack are fast paced guards, who see the floor quite well. If USC plays the lanes soft and allows the slashing moves to the basket, we could be in trouble early.
I like our chances against Auburn, but we will need to establish an interior game to make the exterior shooting work well for us. If we keep them honest, so that they don't cheat to the outside and press us to shoot from too far out, I think we win this one. My prediction - 78-71 in a tight one to the last 1:25 of the game.
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