Jeff Sagarin was the first guy to ever look at college football as a deep dive into "Big Data" as opposed to "gut feelings" by the guys who set the Vegas lines. So while we might be 2-point 'dogs in Vegas vs ECU, Sagarin's ratings, which have been published in USA Today for years, show a different picture, all based on data.
Each week, Sagarin updates every college football team using his data structure and equations that input dozens of quantifiables and then spits out a rating for that team. When you compare that two ratings for teams who are about to play each other, and add his always-changing home-field bump number (right now, his data shows home-field advantage to be worth 2.37 points), you get the difference in score between the teams.
After Week 1, Carolina is ranked #51 in the country with an overall rating of 73.81. ECU is ranked #112 with a rating of 62.5, meaning that if we met on a neutral site he would expect us to win by about 11 points. Take the home-field into consideration and it becomes a Gamecock win by 9 points.
I've always found his stuff fascinating because his numbers often are far different from the polls, especially at the beginning of the year, when so many teams are bumped higher because of reputation than actual numbers (a great example of this is Coastal, who he has ranked at #55).
Check out his Week 1 numbers here: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Current Sagarin ratings for the teams on our schedule; you can see how incredibly tough it is:
Date
View attachment 1091
Opponent
[SIZE= 10px]Sagarin Ranking[/SIZE]
9/5
View attachment 3243
Eastern Illinois
221
9/11
View attachment 1462
@ East Carolina
112
9/18
View attachment 660
@ Georgia
2
9/25
View attachment 1464
Kentucky
28
10/2
View attachment 3244
Troy
[SIZE= 10px]73[/SIZE]
10/09
View attachment 658
@ Tenn.
[SIZE= 10px]50[/SIZE]
10/16
View attachment 654
Vanderbilt
[SIZE= 10px]139[/SIZE]
10/23
View attachment 655
@ Texas A&M
[SIZE= 10px]4[/SIZE]
10/30
Open date
11/6
View attachment 659
Florida
12
11/13
View attachment 1463
@ Missouri
27
11/20
View attachment 3245
Auburn
11
11/27
View attachment 1468
Clemson
[SIZE= 10px]6[/SIZE]
Each week, Sagarin updates every college football team using his data structure and equations that input dozens of quantifiables and then spits out a rating for that team. When you compare that two ratings for teams who are about to play each other, and add his always-changing home-field bump number (right now, his data shows home-field advantage to be worth 2.37 points), you get the difference in score between the teams.
After Week 1, Carolina is ranked #51 in the country with an overall rating of 73.81. ECU is ranked #112 with a rating of 62.5, meaning that if we met on a neutral site he would expect us to win by about 11 points. Take the home-field into consideration and it becomes a Gamecock win by 9 points.
I've always found his stuff fascinating because his numbers often are far different from the polls, especially at the beginning of the year, when so many teams are bumped higher because of reputation than actual numbers (a great example of this is Coastal, who he has ranked at #55).
Check out his Week 1 numbers here: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Current Sagarin ratings for the teams on our schedule; you can see how incredibly tough it is:
Date
View attachment 1091
Opponent
[SIZE= 10px]Sagarin Ranking[/SIZE]
9/5
View attachment 3243
Eastern Illinois
221
9/11
View attachment 1462
@ East Carolina
112
9/18
View attachment 660
@ Georgia
2
9/25
View attachment 1464
Kentucky
28
10/2
View attachment 3244
Troy
[SIZE= 10px]73[/SIZE]
10/09
View attachment 658
@ Tenn.
[SIZE= 10px]50[/SIZE]
10/16
View attachment 654
Vanderbilt
[SIZE= 10px]139[/SIZE]
10/23
View attachment 655
@ Texas A&M
[SIZE= 10px]4[/SIZE]
10/30
Open date
11/6
View attachment 659
Florida
12
11/13
View attachment 1463
@ Missouri
27
11/20
View attachment 3245
Auburn
11
11/27
View attachment 1468
Clemson
[SIZE= 10px]6[/SIZE]
