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What We Learned from the SEC in Week 10

ShepCock

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It only took four days to lose a playoff team. Welcome to college football.
 
That was Texas A&M, which was a fairly controversial inclusion to begin with. So, congratulations to Washington for holding on for at least another week. The Huskies should easily claim that spot now.
 
A&M losing, coupled with Florida's loss to Arkansas really dealt a significant blow to the SEC's chances at two teams in the New Year's Six bowls. It now looks like Alabama and Auburn are the two water-carriers.
 
By the way, there's an election coming up and Alabama-LSU has been an interesting predictor of elections. Since 1984, LSU wins are harbingers of conservatism. Alabama wins are lucky for liberals.
 
In 2012, Alabama and Barack Obama won. In 2008, Alabama and Obama won. In 2004, LSU and George W. Bush won. In 2000, LSU and Bush won. In 1996, Alabama won and Bill Clinton won. In 1992, Alabama won and Clinton won. In 1988, LSU won and George H.W. Bush won. In 1984, LSU won and Ronald Reagan won.
 
Alabama won in 1980 when Ronald Reagan claimed the White House, but the Tide also won in 1976 when Jimmy Carter won election. Richard Nixon bucked the trend in both 1968 and 1972 but the Tide ushered in Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
 
Before that, the teams didn't play every year and their games weren't always in early November.
 
As we'll discuss at length momentarily, Alabama won Saturday, so the Tide is rolling "with her."
 
Here's a look at what we learned from watching SEC games in Week 10.
 
1. Jalen Hurts can handle the pressure. Oh, there was much hand-wringing over how Alabama true freshman Jalen Hurts would handle the "big stage" of playing a night game in what everybody swears is the most difficult environment to play in despite there not being a whole of lot of evidence to back that claim up.
 
Well, Hurts rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown and led the No. 1 Tide to a 10-0 win. He also threw an interception and lost a fumble, both products of a) LSU having a good defense and
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his decision to pursue football as a potential career path.
 
For three quarters, LSU was an impenetrable blockade repelling all who dared test its fortifications. But Alabama (9-0, 6-0) was that for four quarters.[1]
 
The Tide's defense can't be described in overly hyperbolic terms. The Tide's offense relies on Hurts. Alabama used read option largely unsuccessfully and found the end zone when Hurts scrambled and made plays on his own.
 
It didn't seem like it, but Alabama gained 323 yards with 216 coming on the ground. Hurts can be credited for that thanks to two back-breaking runs. LSU gained just 125 total yards with 33 on the ground - half of what Alabama's defense has allowed per game.[2]
 
Alabama can clinch the SEC West next week with a win over Mississippi State coupled with an Auburn loss to Georgia. No matter what, get ready for another epic Iron Bowl.
 
2. Well, so much for Texas A&M. Hoo boy, did anybody see this coming?
 
The No. 4 Aggies suffered an injury to starting quarterback Trevor Knight, but you can't blame the 35-28 loss to Mississippi State on that. They did much better without him than they did with him. And no matter what, this loss was on the defense.
 
Mississippi State rolled up 365 yards rushing on the Aggie defense. Some perspective: that's 78 yards more than the Aggies gave up to Alabama, 83 more than they surrendered to Tennessee and 9 yards more than the combined rushing yards allowed to Auburn and Arkansas.
 
Oof.
 
Suffice it say that their position in the College Football Playoff, which was tenuous to begin with, is gone, and their shot the SEC West title, which was also tenuous, is also gone.
 
The Aggies (7-2, 4-2) need to beat Ole Miss and LSU, have Auburn lose to Georgia and have Alabama lose to Mississippi State and Auburn just to force a three-way tie.
 
3. Quarterback is still an issue for Auburn. This time, however, it's due to injury and not incompetence. Well, that's not entirely true. There was plenty of incompetence in the No. 9 Tigers' 23-16 win over Vanderbilt.
 
John Franklin III cannot throw at all, and Auburn's dominant running game was not enough on its own. An injury on a breakaway run by Kamryn Pettway opened a little crack in the doorway and a blocked field goal swung the door open, but a Vanderbilt interception slammed the door shut.
 
Sean White - who played only because Auburn was in danger of losing to Vanderbilt if he didn't - was 10-of-13 for 106 yards and a touchdown, and gave Auburn's offense the ability to at least pretend it was balanced. Pettway had 173 yards rushing to provide everything else.
 
Franklin only attempted four passes and completed just two of those. Those passes covered less yardage than you did during a bathroom break. (Specifically 9 yards, so if your bathroom is 14 feet away from your chair, you win.)
 
With Georgia and Alabama left on the slate, White needs to be healthy for the Tigers (7-2, 5-1) to stay alive in the West. Auburn can clinch the West with wins over both.
 
4. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Les Miles was no doubt proud of LSU's performance. Not just because the No. 13 Tigers went toe-to-toe with the No. 1 team in football and lost because of one defensive blink. Miles was happy because it showed he wasn't to blame for all of LSU's ills.
 
LSU doesn't have (and, for a while, hasn't had) a capable quarterback, and that can be blamed on Miles because quarterback made all the difference against Alabama. Danny Etling was 11-of-24 for 92 yards with an interception and was sacked five times. (Hurts was sacked once.)
 
Several of those incompletions were poorly thrown and didn't give receivers an opportunity to make a catch. The rest were short, ineffective throws to receivers with no room to run. Etling hit one deep throw early in the game that set up a blocked field goal. His second-most impactful pass was a desperation shovel pass that went about 5 feet.
 
LSU (5-3, 3-2) doesn't even need a great quarterback. The Tigers have a strong defense, good offensive line and can dominate a game on the ground. But to be championship level, there has to be at least the hint of a passing threat.
 
In a lot of ways, the Tigers look like the other Tigers discussed above. Dominant run games are great things to have, but they won't always work alone.
 
5. Florida is in survival mode. No. 11 Florida got 12 rushing yards in a 31-10 loss to Arkansas. The Gators had 14 rushing attempts, three of which were sacks for a loss of 25 yards. If you account for that, the Gators rushed 11 times for 37 yards.
 
Even if you aren't running well, you still have to try. (LSU couldn't run against Alabama, but Leonard Fournette still had 17 carries.)
 
The Gators' defense was just as bad. A unit that was the SEC's best in several categories allowed 223 rushing yards and plummeted its national ranking in rushing defense to 24th. The Gators average allowing 120 yards per game and Arkansas gains an average of 167.
 
That's a total failure.
 
But, despite all that, Florida (6-2, 4-2) still leads the SEC East thanks to Tennessee's meltdown and Kentucky being Kentucky (more on this in a minute). All Florida has to do is beat South Carolina and LSU and the Gators win the East.
 
Florida could lose one of the games and still take the East if Tennessee loses any of its remaining games.
 
6. Basketball season starts Friday. Florida's loss was a God-send for Kentucky. They could have beaten Georgia and been tied at the top with Florida. But instead, the Wildcats lost to Georgia 27-24 and are now on the outside.[3]
 
Kentucky only has one SEC game left, and it's next week against Tennessee. Kentucky's hopes for the East ride on winning that game and having Florida lose to both South Carolina and LSU. It's not looking good.
 
The Wildcats (5-4, 4-3) will qualify for a bowl with any win, and could be a tough postseason opponent for someone thanks to their running game and the Wildcats' "Wildcat" formation.
 
Georgia struggled to stop it and Benny Snell rolled up 114 yards and two touchdowns and Boom Williams added 77 yards and a touchdown.
 
But no matter what happens from here on out, the Wildcats did all that was asked of them - maintain relevancy until the real sports season starts.
 
The No. 2 basketball Wildcats open their season Nov. 11 against Stephen F. Austin.
 
7. Mississippi State can finish a game. There have been so many final quarter, final drive, final play losses for the Bulldogs it was nice to see them on the winning side of that for once.
 
It looked like it might be another letdown as A&M rallied to get within a touchdown, but an interception in the last minute sealed the win.
 
Nick Fitzgerald threw for 209 yards and rushed for 182 with two touchdowns each way.[4] Aeris Williams added another 140 the ground.
 
Bowl eligibility seemed like a serious reach for the Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3), but pulling off a major upset over the Aggies has revived those hopes. Mississippi State plays Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss, and has to win two of those three to make a bowl.
 
Alabama seems like a bridge too far, but the others are definite possibilities.
 
8. Vanderbilt can't catch a break. Oh, it looked like things were going so well.
 
Vanderbilt's running game wasn't particularly strong against Auburn, but the Commodores (4-5, 1-4) got good quarterback play from Kyle Shurmur - a rarity that allowed the game to be competitive. But at the worst moment, he let fly an errant throw that was intercepted to seal the loss.
 
Vandy's rushing game was kept in check with 120 yards. Ralph Webb led the team with 46 and Khari Blasingame gained 30 - only slightly more than two Vandy wide receivers.
 
A win would have put Vanderbilt a win away from bowl eligibility, making the prospect not just a pipe dream. Instead, the Commodores need two wins over Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee to get there.
 
9. Playing Arkansas can define your season. What is up with Arkansas? They get blown out by Auburn and then turn around and upset Florida. I'm confused.
 
Arkansas (6-3, 2-3) can both run well and not run well at all. As a team, the Hogs are ninth in the SEC in rushing, but Rawleigh Williams III is the SEC's second-leading rusher with 955 yards. He gained 148 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against Florida.
 
Two weeks ago against Auburn, Williams had 22.
 
Arkansas has beaten No. 15 TCU, No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 11 Florida and lost to No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 1 Alabama and No. 21 Auburn. They play No. 13 LSU next. Don't pretend you can predict that outcome.[5]
 
10. Alvin Kamara really is better than Jalen Hurd. I shared this take a few weeks ago and now that Hurd has left Tennessee mid-disappointing-season, it has proved prophetic.
 
The Volunteers beat Tennessee Tech 55-0, so it's not like there's any big revelation here. But Hurd left the team and Kamara didn't. No matter the reason, no matter the circumstance - and oh my are there plenty of theories - you leaving is worse for the team than you not leaving.
 
Kamara, by the way, is injured and didn't play against the Golden Eagles. John Kelly handled the rushing duties and gained 104 yards.
 
Tennessee still has a shot in the East but now the Vols are mainly playing out the weak stretch of their schedule hoping to salvage a respectable bowl. Kamara can easily deliver that.
 
The Vols needs to beat Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt and have Florida lose to either South Carolina or LSU.
 
Extra points:
 
[1] - It has to keep being said, but don't taunt Alabama. Don't say you're going to dominate a team that you haven't beaten in five years and then go out there and get shut out. LSU did that.
 
[2] - Whoa, two footnotes for the same game? You bet your butt. This game deserved it. But what could possibly be worthy of a second footnote? Punters! For three quarters, this was, like, the greatest punting game in the history of football. LSU controlled field position the first half and Alabama controlled field position in the second half. LSU's offense was outpunted by Josh Growden 336 to 125. He had eight punts compared to LSU's six first downs. Hurts' running in the fourth quarter helped Alabama outpace J.K. Scott's 258 punting yards.
 
[3] - Look at you, Georgia. Things are starting to look a little less bleak. Before long you will have forgotten all about Mark Richt. So, what's he up to? Well, he picked up a 51-28 win over Pittsburgh.
 
[4] - Dak Prescott never did that. Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel did. So, Nick, here's hoping you don't get drafted by the Cleveland Browns.
 
[5] - I miss the Crazy Hog Lady.
 
 
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