The closer we get to the College Football Playoff rankings being announced Tuesday, the weirder things get.
The No. 2 team lost last week and then this week every game involving a playoff contender threatened to give the committee some hard questions to answer. The Nos. 7, 8 and 10 teams all lost, the Nos. 3, 4, 5 and 6 teams all won by a touchdown or less and the No. 2 team won by more than a touchdown only because it returned a 2-point conversion at the end of the game.
The only top 10 teams to not have a scare or defeat were from the SEC. No. 1 Alabama was off and No. 9 Texas A&M might as well have been with its 52-10 win over New Mexico State.
The Crimson Tide have LSU next week in the first set of games after the rankings are unveiled, so start making plans accordingly. This is where it really gets good.
Here's a look at what we learned from watching SEC games in Week 9.
1. It's time for another big Saturday night in Baton Rouge (WARNING: Statistical analysis). CBS has scheduled Alabama/LSU for primetime the same way it annually schedules the Florida-Georgia game.[1]
Starting with the 2011 game, CBS has taken its doubleheader option for the Tide and Tigers every year regardless of home field - and for good reason. Dating back to 2005, the game has gone into overtime four times and in the 11 regular season games since then, seven have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Alabama (8-0, 5-0) has the edge with a 6-5 record in those games and has won four straight. It also has the decided edge entering next week. The Tide have the nation's No. 11 rushing offense and No. 1 rushing defense. LSU (5-2, 3-1) is No. 20 and No. 8, respectively.
Let's make no mistake about this, Alabama is No. 1 for a reason. I searched for something where LSU had the statistical edge and found fewest penalties per game (5.5 to 6.2), fewest penalty yards per game (47.2 to 49.5), punt return defense (LSU is No. 32 nationally and Alabama is No. 113) and sacks allowed (1.57 per game to 1.75).
They're virtually tied in scoring defense with Alabama allowing 14.9 points per game and LSU allowing 15. Alabama has a wide lead in most everything else.
The numbers are usually not this disparate. LSU has been Alabama's toughest perennial opponent for more than a decade and is the only team that could consistently match up with the Tide man-for-man. Even with the Tigers' struggles and Alabama's offensive rebirth, that should still be the case.
As it has so many times before, special teams and intangibles could be the decider. Alabama lost safety and punt returner Eddie Jackson for the season last week. Jackson was instrumental in helping Alabama score a non-offensive touchdown in every game dating back to last season. The Tide has nine defensive touchdowns this year - more than twice as many as the next best team.
Despite both teams being rushing game powers, their dominant rushing defenses make the passing game more important. LSU has been inconsistent in that area, and will be facing the nation's best sack-producing defense.
2. Kentucky could win the SEC East? In a word, yes. In practice, well, that's where it gets more difficult. The Wildcats are a win away from a bowl game, and with Austin Peay coming up on the schedule, they should get it.
But earning something better than a bottom tier bowl and making a run at Atlanta is more complicated. Following a 35-21 win over Missouri, Kentucky (5-3, 4-2) has two conference games left against Georgia and Tennessee.
Both look winnable due to Tennessee and Georgia having nothing going their way at the moment and Kentucky's one-two rushing attack from Stanley Williams and Benny Snell. Williams is the SEC's No. 3 rusher and Snell is tied for the most TDs among the conference's running backs.
They've taken advantage of some weaker defenses to pad those numbers, but the Wildcats are still one of two teams to have two players of the conference's top 10 rushers (LSU is the other) and are fifth in the conference in rushing yards per game (No. 30 nationally).
Kentucky must beat both Georgia and Tennessee and have Florida lose twice in games against Arkansas, South Carolina and LSU. It's a tall order on both ends, but just the mathematic possibility is a big improvement.
3. Florida's defense is all it needs. Florida needs to win two of its three remaining SEC games to make a return trip to the SEC championship game. It's dominant defense, specifically against the run, will put the Gators at least in position to do that. The Gators are third in the SEC and 10th nationally against the run, allowing 105 yards per game.
The Gators (6-1, 4-1) held Georgia to 21 rushing yards in a 24-10 win Saturday. Nick Chubb had 20 of those, averaged 2.2 yards per carry and his longest run was just 7 yards. As a team, Georgia averaged 1.1 yard per carry.
That's significant because in Florida's upcoming SEC games it faces Arkansas and LSU, both teams that have relied on their running games to move the ball. Arkansas has moved away from that this year, but still has the SEC's No. 4 rusher in Rawleigh Williams III. LSU has the SEC's No. 4 running game and two players in the top 10 in rushing yards in the conference. (South Carolina, Florida's other remaining SEC opponent, is the conference's worst rushing team.)
And looking ahead, potential championship game matchups are with Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M, the conference's three best rushing teams.
The Gators rode it to the championship game last year and it's setting up for them to do it again.
4. The Vols have fallen off a cliff. Tennessee has had terrible first halves and great second halves in its games this year, but the season is looking like the opposite.
After starting 5-0 with wins over Florida and Georgia, the Vols were riding high and cruising toward the SEC East crown. But now with losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Saturday's inexplicable 24-21 fall to South Carolina, it's just more wasted potential.
Tennessee (5-3, 2-3) isn't mathematically eliminated in the SEC East yet but will be with another conference win by Florida or loss of their own. Things were shaping up great for Tennessee, even with those two previous losses.
The Vols held the head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida and just needed to walk through the SEC East's bottom feeders and have Florida stumble in any of its remaining games. Then Tennessee itself stumbled to the Gamecocks and now the Vols are on par with Kentucky for the division (they play each other in two weeks).
5. The Gus Bus is in overdrive. Auburn is averaging 303 rushing yards per game and has the SEC's leading rusher in Kamryn Pettway thanks to 236 yards in a 40-29 win over Ole Miss. The only teams with more rushing yards per game are New Mexico and Army, and neither has faced a schedule near as tough as Auburn's.
Obviously, this means everybody is looking forward to the Iron Bowl where we could get the nation's best rushing offense against the nation's best rushing defense. But before that, Auburn (6-2, 4-1) has to get through Vanderbilt (easy) and Georgia (potentially easy) to stake its claim in the SEC West.
We've been here before, but it's different this time because Auburn can also play defense now. The Tigers still aren't great against the pass, allowing 231 yards per game (73rd nationally) but the Tigers are great in the red zone - third in the SEC and tied for ninth nationally.
6. Missouri should be contracted. I've been talking up Kentucky because it's nice to see them making some noise, but there's no reason why anyone should let the Wildcats get out to a 21-0 lead, especially when your offensive numbers have been so good.[2] Missouri (2-6, 0-4) came back and made it respectable, but there's no sugarcoating where the Tigers are right now.
Missouri's two wins are over Eastern Michigan and Delaware State. Aside from a one-point loss to Georgia, none of their other games have been close.
There's a chance for some sense of redemption with games against similarly futile South Carolina and Vanderbilt still on the schedule and two more against deeply flawed and faltering Tennessee and Arkansas.
7. Will Muschamp has the dirt on Tennessee. Muschamp has not had a sterling reputation as a head coach, but he's 5-0 against Tennessee. How did that happen?
That's a result of that 11-game winning streak Florida had over Tennessee entering this season. But for South Carolina (4-4, 2-4), with all of its woes this year, to pull off the upset is dumbfounding. Muschamp's record against non-Tennessee SEC teams is 14-19.
What does Muschamp know and how does he know it? Is he hacking emails? Is the system rigged against Tennessee? Is it Russia? It's Russia, isn't it?
Whatever it is, Jake Bentley needs to hang around at quarterback. He threw for 167 yards and two touchdowns against the Vols. South Carolina has been playing musical quarterbacks all season, but going with "the dude who beat Tennessee" can't be that bad of an idea.
8. This is not what Georgia does. What the heck is going on here?
Georgia (4-4, 2-4) is always good for something head-scratching and inexplicable, but 21 rushing yards? Total? As a team? That's crisis mode.
I've got nothing to add to that.[3]
9. Chad Kelly can't do it alone. Accounting for 505 of your team's 570 yards is usually something players get praised for. If Ole Miss (3-5, 1-4) was winning, Kelly would get that praise. But the Rebels are losing, and they're losing precisely because of how important Kelly is.
It's not that he's being relied on so heavily because he's a transcendent athlete who commands the spotlight. It's because there are no other options.
Kelly is a great passer and a good runner and he's got good receivers around him, but the Rebels' defense is not worthy of having a nickname or a hand gesture, and their running game exists only because Kelly has to routinely escape defenders.
The Rebels are 1-4 in SEC play and that could very easily get worse.
10. There are no more off days. Sweet Tim Tebow, what a relief. It's hard coming up with things to say about wins over New Mexico State and Samford. We've got one more week of games like that with Louisiana-Lafayette, Austin Peay, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Alabama A&M and Texas-San Antonio on the slate in three weeks.
But by then we can talk about bowl games and whatnot and Florida and LSU dropped two similar opponents so they could play each other. That means I won't have to fill holes with mindless rambling because four teams decided they wanted the same day off. It's the second time that happened and another week had three open dates.4
I'm just glad we survived it.
Extra points:
[1] - Which is so totally NOT a cocktail party, right? Right.
Booze haul followup: Everybody in this Georgia-Florida tailgate was under 21 so cops took it all. pic.twitter.com/QQ59W8GWun
— Jeff Schultz (@JeffSchultzAJC) October 29, 2016
[2] - Missouri has the SEC's fourth-best offense, but that's incredibly misleading because of gaudy numbers put up against their two inferior opponents. They've got the SEC's worst defense.
[3] - So, what's March Richt up to? He's doing nearly as bad. Miami lost its fourth straight game 30-27 to Notre Dame.
[4] - And other teams played nobodies like Tennessee State and UMass those weeks. How can you "learn" something from that?
The No. 2 team lost last week and then this week every game involving a playoff contender threatened to give the committee some hard questions to answer. The Nos. 7, 8 and 10 teams all lost, the Nos. 3, 4, 5 and 6 teams all won by a touchdown or less and the No. 2 team won by more than a touchdown only because it returned a 2-point conversion at the end of the game.
The only top 10 teams to not have a scare or defeat were from the SEC. No. 1 Alabama was off and No. 9 Texas A&M might as well have been with its 52-10 win over New Mexico State.
The Crimson Tide have LSU next week in the first set of games after the rankings are unveiled, so start making plans accordingly. This is where it really gets good.
Here's a look at what we learned from watching SEC games in Week 9.
1. It's time for another big Saturday night in Baton Rouge (WARNING: Statistical analysis). CBS has scheduled Alabama/LSU for primetime the same way it annually schedules the Florida-Georgia game.[1]
Starting with the 2011 game, CBS has taken its doubleheader option for the Tide and Tigers every year regardless of home field - and for good reason. Dating back to 2005, the game has gone into overtime four times and in the 11 regular season games since then, seven have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Alabama (8-0, 5-0) has the edge with a 6-5 record in those games and has won four straight. It also has the decided edge entering next week. The Tide have the nation's No. 11 rushing offense and No. 1 rushing defense. LSU (5-2, 3-1) is No. 20 and No. 8, respectively.
Let's make no mistake about this, Alabama is No. 1 for a reason. I searched for something where LSU had the statistical edge and found fewest penalties per game (5.5 to 6.2), fewest penalty yards per game (47.2 to 49.5), punt return defense (LSU is No. 32 nationally and Alabama is No. 113) and sacks allowed (1.57 per game to 1.75).
They're virtually tied in scoring defense with Alabama allowing 14.9 points per game and LSU allowing 15. Alabama has a wide lead in most everything else.
The numbers are usually not this disparate. LSU has been Alabama's toughest perennial opponent for more than a decade and is the only team that could consistently match up with the Tide man-for-man. Even with the Tigers' struggles and Alabama's offensive rebirth, that should still be the case.
As it has so many times before, special teams and intangibles could be the decider. Alabama lost safety and punt returner Eddie Jackson for the season last week. Jackson was instrumental in helping Alabama score a non-offensive touchdown in every game dating back to last season. The Tide has nine defensive touchdowns this year - more than twice as many as the next best team.
Despite both teams being rushing game powers, their dominant rushing defenses make the passing game more important. LSU has been inconsistent in that area, and will be facing the nation's best sack-producing defense.
2. Kentucky could win the SEC East? In a word, yes. In practice, well, that's where it gets more difficult. The Wildcats are a win away from a bowl game, and with Austin Peay coming up on the schedule, they should get it.
But earning something better than a bottom tier bowl and making a run at Atlanta is more complicated. Following a 35-21 win over Missouri, Kentucky (5-3, 4-2) has two conference games left against Georgia and Tennessee.
Both look winnable due to Tennessee and Georgia having nothing going their way at the moment and Kentucky's one-two rushing attack from Stanley Williams and Benny Snell. Williams is the SEC's No. 3 rusher and Snell is tied for the most TDs among the conference's running backs.
They've taken advantage of some weaker defenses to pad those numbers, but the Wildcats are still one of two teams to have two players of the conference's top 10 rushers (LSU is the other) and are fifth in the conference in rushing yards per game (No. 30 nationally).
Kentucky must beat both Georgia and Tennessee and have Florida lose twice in games against Arkansas, South Carolina and LSU. It's a tall order on both ends, but just the mathematic possibility is a big improvement.
3. Florida's defense is all it needs. Florida needs to win two of its three remaining SEC games to make a return trip to the SEC championship game. It's dominant defense, specifically against the run, will put the Gators at least in position to do that. The Gators are third in the SEC and 10th nationally against the run, allowing 105 yards per game.
The Gators (6-1, 4-1) held Georgia to 21 rushing yards in a 24-10 win Saturday. Nick Chubb had 20 of those, averaged 2.2 yards per carry and his longest run was just 7 yards. As a team, Georgia averaged 1.1 yard per carry.
That's significant because in Florida's upcoming SEC games it faces Arkansas and LSU, both teams that have relied on their running games to move the ball. Arkansas has moved away from that this year, but still has the SEC's No. 4 rusher in Rawleigh Williams III. LSU has the SEC's No. 4 running game and two players in the top 10 in rushing yards in the conference. (South Carolina, Florida's other remaining SEC opponent, is the conference's worst rushing team.)
And looking ahead, potential championship game matchups are with Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M, the conference's three best rushing teams.
The Gators rode it to the championship game last year and it's setting up for them to do it again.
4. The Vols have fallen off a cliff. Tennessee has had terrible first halves and great second halves in its games this year, but the season is looking like the opposite.
After starting 5-0 with wins over Florida and Georgia, the Vols were riding high and cruising toward the SEC East crown. But now with losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Saturday's inexplicable 24-21 fall to South Carolina, it's just more wasted potential.
Tennessee (5-3, 2-3) isn't mathematically eliminated in the SEC East yet but will be with another conference win by Florida or loss of their own. Things were shaping up great for Tennessee, even with those two previous losses.
The Vols held the head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida and just needed to walk through the SEC East's bottom feeders and have Florida stumble in any of its remaining games. Then Tennessee itself stumbled to the Gamecocks and now the Vols are on par with Kentucky for the division (they play each other in two weeks).
5. The Gus Bus is in overdrive. Auburn is averaging 303 rushing yards per game and has the SEC's leading rusher in Kamryn Pettway thanks to 236 yards in a 40-29 win over Ole Miss. The only teams with more rushing yards per game are New Mexico and Army, and neither has faced a schedule near as tough as Auburn's.
Obviously, this means everybody is looking forward to the Iron Bowl where we could get the nation's best rushing offense against the nation's best rushing defense. But before that, Auburn (6-2, 4-1) has to get through Vanderbilt (easy) and Georgia (potentially easy) to stake its claim in the SEC West.
We've been here before, but it's different this time because Auburn can also play defense now. The Tigers still aren't great against the pass, allowing 231 yards per game (73rd nationally) but the Tigers are great in the red zone - third in the SEC and tied for ninth nationally.
6. Missouri should be contracted. I've been talking up Kentucky because it's nice to see them making some noise, but there's no reason why anyone should let the Wildcats get out to a 21-0 lead, especially when your offensive numbers have been so good.[2] Missouri (2-6, 0-4) came back and made it respectable, but there's no sugarcoating where the Tigers are right now.
Missouri's two wins are over Eastern Michigan and Delaware State. Aside from a one-point loss to Georgia, none of their other games have been close.
There's a chance for some sense of redemption with games against similarly futile South Carolina and Vanderbilt still on the schedule and two more against deeply flawed and faltering Tennessee and Arkansas.
7. Will Muschamp has the dirt on Tennessee. Muschamp has not had a sterling reputation as a head coach, but he's 5-0 against Tennessee. How did that happen?
That's a result of that 11-game winning streak Florida had over Tennessee entering this season. But for South Carolina (4-4, 2-4), with all of its woes this year, to pull off the upset is dumbfounding. Muschamp's record against non-Tennessee SEC teams is 14-19.
What does Muschamp know and how does he know it? Is he hacking emails? Is the system rigged against Tennessee? Is it Russia? It's Russia, isn't it?
Whatever it is, Jake Bentley needs to hang around at quarterback. He threw for 167 yards and two touchdowns against the Vols. South Carolina has been playing musical quarterbacks all season, but going with "the dude who beat Tennessee" can't be that bad of an idea.
8. This is not what Georgia does. What the heck is going on here?
Georgia (4-4, 2-4) is always good for something head-scratching and inexplicable, but 21 rushing yards? Total? As a team? That's crisis mode.
I've got nothing to add to that.[3]
9. Chad Kelly can't do it alone. Accounting for 505 of your team's 570 yards is usually something players get praised for. If Ole Miss (3-5, 1-4) was winning, Kelly would get that praise. But the Rebels are losing, and they're losing precisely because of how important Kelly is.
It's not that he's being relied on so heavily because he's a transcendent athlete who commands the spotlight. It's because there are no other options.
Kelly is a great passer and a good runner and he's got good receivers around him, but the Rebels' defense is not worthy of having a nickname or a hand gesture, and their running game exists only because Kelly has to routinely escape defenders.
The Rebels are 1-4 in SEC play and that could very easily get worse.
10. There are no more off days. Sweet Tim Tebow, what a relief. It's hard coming up with things to say about wins over New Mexico State and Samford. We've got one more week of games like that with Louisiana-Lafayette, Austin Peay, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Alabama A&M and Texas-San Antonio on the slate in three weeks.
But by then we can talk about bowl games and whatnot and Florida and LSU dropped two similar opponents so they could play each other. That means I won't have to fill holes with mindless rambling because four teams decided they wanted the same day off. It's the second time that happened and another week had three open dates.4
I'm just glad we survived it.
Extra points:
[1] - Which is so totally NOT a cocktail party, right? Right.
Booze haul followup: Everybody in this Georgia-Florida tailgate was under 21 so cops took it all. pic.twitter.com/QQ59W8GWun
— Jeff Schultz (@JeffSchultzAJC) October 29, 2016
[2] - Missouri has the SEC's fourth-best offense, but that's incredibly misleading because of gaudy numbers put up against their two inferior opponents. They've got the SEC's worst defense.
[3] - So, what's March Richt up to? He's doing nearly as bad. Miami lost its fourth straight game 30-27 to Notre Dame.
[4] - And other teams played nobodies like Tennessee State and UMass those weeks. How can you "learn" something from that?
