I realized today how much I miss college football. (while watching the Georgia Southern vs ODU game, a game I would have never turned on a month ago.)
And the bowl season isn't starting quick enough for me, well at least with any match ups I care about. At the begining of the season there was an espn article ( http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/i...ecs-sleeper-qb
) that sparked some discussion about whether Shaw was improving as the 2011 season went on or whether he was just more comfortable on at home instead of on the road. Anyway, I decided that with the lack of college football today was the perfect time to crunch some numbers and see what I could gleen from the 2012 stats. Here are his home/away splits for 2011 and 2012:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Home vs Away (2011)
Overall
123/188 (65.4%) 1448 yds 14 tds, 6 ints
Rushing 525 on 135 carries 8tds
Home
77/117 (65.8%) 1078 yds 12 tds, 2 ints
rushing 409 yds on 89 carries 5 tds
Away/Neutral
46/71 (64.8%) 370 yds, 2 tds, 4 ints
rushing 116 yds on 46 carries 3 tds
Home vs Away (2012)
Overall
136/202 (67.3%) 1732 yds 15 tds, 7 ints
Rushing 339 on 121 carries 3tds
Home
86/119 (72.3%) 1268 yds 11 tds, 4 ints
rushing 174 yds on 67 carries 3 tds
Away/Neutral
50/83 (60.2%) 464yds, 4 tds, 3 ints
rushing 165 yds on 54 carries 0tds
---------------------------------------------------------------
The biggest thing that jumps out at me when I look at this is the TD:INT ratio. Way worse on the road both years. Most of those road games are road SEC games and the SEC is one hell of rough place to play on the road, so maybe that explains it. And this year we played some highly ranked teams on the road so maybe that explains it. Have a look at Ranked vs Unranked splits between 2011 and 2012:
------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 Ranked vs Unranked teams
Overall
123/188 (65.4%) 1448 yds 14 tds, 6 ints
Rushing 525 on 135 carries 8tds
Ranked
41/62 (66.1%) 568 yds 5 tds, 1 ints
rushing 173 yds on 52 carries 4 tds
Unranked
82/126 (65.1%) 880yds, 9 tds, 5 ints
rushing 352 yds on 83 carries 4 tds
2012 Ranked vs Unranked teams
Overall
136/202 (67.3%) 1732 yds 15 tds, 7 ints
Rushing 339 on 121 carries 3tds
Ranked
34/64 (53.1%) 411 yds 4 tds, 2 ints
rushing 75 yds on 35 carries 1 tds
Unranked
102/138 (73.9%) 1321 yds, 11 tds, 5 ints
rushing 264 yds on 86 carries 2 tds
------------------------------------------------------------------
Now you can look at tons of different things, but those are pretty similar TD:INT ratios in 2012 (roughly 2:1) against ranked or unranked opponents and in 2011 Connor Shaw's numbers look worse against unranked teams. But both years, there is a pretty dramatic drop when you compare the ratios between home and away. In 2011, the ratio at home was 6:1 and on the road was 0.5:1. Now he improved on the road in 2012 but the difference between the ratios is still there. In 2012, at home 2.75:1 while on the road 1.333:1.
(I have excel graphs to illustrate the point but I do not know how to add them to this post.)
I want to be clear that I am not trying to talk smack about connor or take a side in the CS vs DT debate. I just wanted to see if Connor's numbers on the road had improved in 2012.
Short answer: He improved some, but there is still a big difference in his numbers that cannot be explained (at least statically) by whether the team was ranked or not.
-I am excited to see what people think about these numbers and for anyone that knows how to tell me how to add an excel graph to a post (I have it in JPG and xlsx formats)
One last stat: TD:INT ratio against top 5 teams at home in 2012 2:0 on the road 2:2.
And the bowl season isn't starting quick enough for me, well at least with any match ups I care about. At the begining of the season there was an espn article ( http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/i...ecs-sleeper-qb
) that sparked some discussion about whether Shaw was improving as the 2011 season went on or whether he was just more comfortable on at home instead of on the road. Anyway, I decided that with the lack of college football today was the perfect time to crunch some numbers and see what I could gleen from the 2012 stats. Here are his home/away splits for 2011 and 2012:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Home vs Away (2011)
Overall
123/188 (65.4%) 1448 yds 14 tds, 6 ints
Rushing 525 on 135 carries 8tds
Home
77/117 (65.8%) 1078 yds 12 tds, 2 ints
rushing 409 yds on 89 carries 5 tds
Away/Neutral
46/71 (64.8%) 370 yds, 2 tds, 4 ints
rushing 116 yds on 46 carries 3 tds
Home vs Away (2012)
Overall
136/202 (67.3%) 1732 yds 15 tds, 7 ints
Rushing 339 on 121 carries 3tds
Home
86/119 (72.3%) 1268 yds 11 tds, 4 ints
rushing 174 yds on 67 carries 3 tds
Away/Neutral
50/83 (60.2%) 464yds, 4 tds, 3 ints
rushing 165 yds on 54 carries 0tds
---------------------------------------------------------------
The biggest thing that jumps out at me when I look at this is the TD:INT ratio. Way worse on the road both years. Most of those road games are road SEC games and the SEC is one hell of rough place to play on the road, so maybe that explains it. And this year we played some highly ranked teams on the road so maybe that explains it. Have a look at Ranked vs Unranked splits between 2011 and 2012:
------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 Ranked vs Unranked teams
Overall
123/188 (65.4%) 1448 yds 14 tds, 6 ints
Rushing 525 on 135 carries 8tds
Ranked
41/62 (66.1%) 568 yds 5 tds, 1 ints
rushing 173 yds on 52 carries 4 tds
Unranked
82/126 (65.1%) 880yds, 9 tds, 5 ints
rushing 352 yds on 83 carries 4 tds
2012 Ranked vs Unranked teams
Overall
136/202 (67.3%) 1732 yds 15 tds, 7 ints
Rushing 339 on 121 carries 3tds
Ranked
34/64 (53.1%) 411 yds 4 tds, 2 ints
rushing 75 yds on 35 carries 1 tds
Unranked
102/138 (73.9%) 1321 yds, 11 tds, 5 ints
rushing 264 yds on 86 carries 2 tds
------------------------------------------------------------------
Now you can look at tons of different things, but those are pretty similar TD:INT ratios in 2012 (roughly 2:1) against ranked or unranked opponents and in 2011 Connor Shaw's numbers look worse against unranked teams. But both years, there is a pretty dramatic drop when you compare the ratios between home and away. In 2011, the ratio at home was 6:1 and on the road was 0.5:1. Now he improved on the road in 2012 but the difference between the ratios is still there. In 2012, at home 2.75:1 while on the road 1.333:1.
(I have excel graphs to illustrate the point but I do not know how to add them to this post.)
I want to be clear that I am not trying to talk smack about connor or take a side in the CS vs DT debate. I just wanted to see if Connor's numbers on the road had improved in 2012.
Short answer: He improved some, but there is still a big difference in his numbers that cannot be explained (at least statically) by whether the team was ranked or not.
-I am excited to see what people think about these numbers and for anyone that knows how to tell me how to add an excel graph to a post (I have it in JPG and xlsx formats)
One last stat: TD:INT ratio against top 5 teams at home in 2012 2:0 on the road 2:2.
