What if China invades Taiwan?

[AikenGameFan]

Personally, I am more worried about Taiwan than Ukraine. China has far more advanced weapons than Russia because they have stolen so much of our technology. I really do not know how well we would hold up trying to help Taiwan against the weapons and mass size of the CCP. And once China takes them, I bet they will continue to spread out even more. They will lock down a huge part of shipping in the West Pacific and may even mess with Vietnam and Korea.
It would not surprise me to see China help Russia go ahead and take over Ukraine so that Russia will back them when they start taking places like Taiwan.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I don't think it's a matter of if but when it happens. And when it does happen like history has shown us time after time after time it won't stop with Taiwan.

I'm not sure what our reaction should be. I certainly don't want to get into a war with China. When I was in the Army attending Leadership schools the Army would tell us that the problem with getting into a war with China is that if you kill 5-10 million Chinese you're just doing them a favor.

Also Australia has recently come out and said they're not sure they'd get involved in this which I found disturbing. Do they really believe China would leave them alone?

On a side note a seaborne invasion is a much more difficult operation to pull off than a land invasion. The Chinese won't be able to sneak up on Taiwan and Taiwan could likely make this very costly in material for China by sinking a lot of their ships and shooting down a lot of their aircraft.

China may have little to no regard on losing people but losing Naval vessels is a different issue altogether.

 

[kingofnerf]

China firm wins Solomon Islands port project as Australia watches on

China Civil Engineering Construction Company (CCECC) was awarded the contract

www.international-construction.com

The port reconstruction deal is part of a US$170-million project funded by the ADB to upgrade roads and wharves, which saw CCECC awarded the roads component in 2022.

“This will see the rehabilitation of the old Honiara international port and construction of the Honiara domestic port and two provincial ports,” the Solomon Islands government said in a statement.

Honiara, the capital of the modern-day Solomon Islands, is essentially located in the vicinity of the old Henderson Field on Guadalcanal from WW2 days.

Guadalcanal was a worthless, malaria-infested island back then, but it served as a jumping-off point to the old Imperial Japanese military for capturing Malaysia and Australia. The Japanese never captured Australia, but they would have done it if we had lost at Guadalcanal.

Lots of American blood was spilled in the Solomon Islands back then. U. S. Navy casualties outnumbered those of ground forces 5-to-1 due to heavy warship losses in the Guadalcanal area.

My thought is the local island government probably wasn't given much choice by the Chinese just like they had no choice against the Japanese government in WW2.

History repeating itself in many ways.

 

[Spur's Addiction]

China is facing a population decline. Their decades long single child policy has controlled their population explosion, but from what I read their population is seriously aging and it will impact them economically pretty severely.

Not sure what that means for their military. Will they be more agressive in places like Taiwan? Not sure how that is handled by the US and other western nations. Hopefully Ukraine is a warning for China, that you can;t just waltz in and take over a smaller country.

It will have major economic implications worldwide. Taiwan is a huge source of semiconductor chip fabrication. Some of the most advanced fabs are in Tawian. If china invades, that will impact supply chains probably more severely then Covid did. I think this is why you see the US enact the CHIPs act (or whatever it was called) to try to bring that manufacturing capabiltity back to the US.

 

[JimG]

I think this is why you see the US enact the CHIPs act (or whatever it was called) to try to bring that manufacturing capabiltity back to the US.

They are building a huge Taiwanese semi-conductor plant not far from where I live.

There has been some wargaming that predicts a western victory in a PRC v. ROC war, with significant losses on all sides ( 2x USN carriers down, etc).

China has problems with our fast attack subs. We have some advantages.

And the situation in Ukraine is certainly making them blink.

 

[JimG]

I don't think it's a matter of if but when it happens.

Beyond "unfinished business from ~1945", the question is why? Why would the PRC risk going to war with multinational forces & devastating their economy for an island that poses no offensive threat? They stand to lose so much more than they gain.

 

[Spur's Addiction]

Beyond "unfinished business from ~1945", the question is why? Why would the PRC risk going to war with multinational forces & devastating their economy for an island that poses no offensive threat? They stand to lose so much more than they gain.

Similar reason why Putin invaded Ukraine. China considers Taiwan part of China.

When the communists took over in the 40's, the ousted Chinese government (and it's supporters) fled the mainland to Taiwan. China has always considered Taiwan part of China, and the government there as illegitimate.

I don't think there is any strategic reason, other then national pride. I could be wrong.

 

[JimG]

I don't think there is any strategic reason, other then national pride. I could be wrong.

Yea...early days of cold war. Some of this played into the Korean War. Chiang Kai-shek had issues with corruption in his govt.
There's a lot of Chinese history from that era.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Beyond "unfinished business from ~1945", the question is why? Why would the PRC risk going to war with multinational forces & devastating their economy for an island that poses no offensive threat? They stand to lose so much more than they gain.

Despots often do things that make no sense. Also typically these types of leaders (Hitler, Stalin, Putin, Xi) will push as far as they feel like they can get away with. IMO the current political climate leads them (Putin, Xi) to believe that the time to make these moves is right.

 

[gamecock88]

The world could starve china to death very quickly. Don't see a conventional attack on an island going very well for them. The only quick solution for china would be an all out nuclear attack and then the world reacts. Lose lose for them or they'd have done it already.

 

[JimG]

Despots often do things that make no sense. Also typically these types of leaders (Hitler, Stalin, Putin, Xi) will push as far as they feel like they can get away with. IMO the current political climate leads them (Putin, Xi) to believe that the time to make these moves is right.

That's WWIII & a protracted conflict. The PRC would be risking it all for this. They don't have a lot of friends.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

That's WWIII & a protracted conflict. The PRC would be risking it all for this. They don't have a lot of friends.

When you have a billion people I'm not sure you need many friends. We also have to keep in mind that China is playing chess and in it for the long term.

 

[JimG]

When you have a billion people I'm not sure you need many friends.

They need foreign trade "friends" and their markets are not as solid as those in the US. They are economically vulnerable (whether they realize it or not).

 

[Longhaul]

China is facing a population decline. Their decades long single child policy has controlled their population explosion, but from what I read their population is seriously aging and it will impact them economically pretty severely.

Not sure what that means for their military. Will they be more agressive in places like Taiwan? Not sure how that is handled by the US and other western nations. Hopefully Ukraine is a warning for China, that you can;t just waltz in and take over a smaller country.

It will have major economic implications worldwide. Taiwan is a huge source of semiconductor chip fabrication. Some of the most advanced fabs are in Tawian. If china invades, that will impact supply chains probably more severely then Covid did. I think this is why you see the US enact the CHIPs act (or whatever it was called) to try to bring that manufacturing capabiltity back to the US.

This... China is feeling like their backs are against a wall. The only thing they have really had is a huge population that is rapidly aging. They are facing a huge economic crisis within the next decade as they will not have enough workers to continue to produce the goods they need to stay relevant. Their practice of 1 child and aborting females has come back to haunt them and they are now trying to pay couples to have children, but I think they are too late. India will soon take over in population size, which China has always felt was their strength. The tariffs put on them have proven to be a good thing and even though it was highly politicized at the time, they are still in place today. This got the ball rolling on bringing production back to the US and we have wisely continued to realize we need this capacity here once again. Covid also showed us and the rest of the world that we were too reliant on China. I think all of these factors are pushing them to make a move and try to regain power and also the reason they are looking to align with other powers against the US. The longer we can hold this off the worse it gets for them and they know this. I would expect if they are going to make a move it will be sooner than later.

 

[JimG]

I would expect if they are going to make a move it will be sooner than later.

But a major war would only expedite an ecomonic crisis and further isolate foreign trade. And occupying Taiwan does little if anything to fix what you've described.

And FWIW, Japan is also facing a similar crisis with not enough young people.

 

[GamecockSkip]

I see a chance of a major war if China does try to reclaim Taiwan. While there is no proof that htey have a nuclear capability, I would bet that they have a sizable stockpile hidden away and would use them if attacked.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's ironic that as a child growing up in the 60's and early 70's we heard a lot of messaging/warnings about over populating the Earth. Now it seems that many countries are facing declining population issues.