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What should our response be if Russia invades Ukraine?

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So, question: if you accept that the Russian army's performance has been a sh*t show to date, don't they begin to learn on the job and get better the longer this war goes on? At what point do they go from incompetent to experienced/combat ready?
 
FurmanCock said:
So, question: if you accept that the Russian army's performance has been a sh*t show to date, don't they begin to learn on the job and get better the longer this war goes on? At what point do they go from incompetent to experienced/combat ready?
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Excellent question but the real problem with the Russian Army (as I see it from a retired soldier's point of view and my own actual dealings with them) is a lack of leadership, poor motivation/morale and poor training.

These problems don't get fixed over night. As far as experience goes think of a bad offensive line. They all come back the next year and have experience but they're still facing a talent deficit.

These Russian troops had low morale from the get go and nothing that has happened to date is going to improve their morale. Many of these troops have had little training. Modern warfare is very complicated and requires mastering a plethora of different tasks.

I don't see things getting any better for them other than sheer numbers winning a war of attrition.
 
Yeah, a war of attrition is what this has become. It's really tough to see a favorable outcome for Ukraine barring a couple of scenarios: change of Russian leadership, or some kind of offensive strike into Russian territory. I would think it's tough to win a war when all of the fighting is in your country. Right now Ukraine is fighting to not lose.
 
FurmanCock said:
Right now Ukraine is fighting to not lose.
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They ZSU (UA) are draining the RA forces. At this point, unless the RA can blast away with artillery, they are incapable of effective offensive operations. That's the only way they are making any kind of advances in the east, while the ZSU are slowly retaking land in the southern axis. If the ZSU retakes Kerson, watch out.
But give the RA credit for finding a way to make some advances even if it's brutal WWI type tactics. The ZSU has lost a lot of people/equipment with their delaying tactics while the RA is a long way from taking the Donbas.

The ZSU needs time to build up their offensive capabilities.
We did the same thing before we launched our invasion of Normandy 6/6/44.

And the ZSU just chased the RA off of Snake Island. That was significant.
 
FurmanCock said:
Yeah, a war of attrition is what this has become. It's really tough to see a favorable outcome for Ukraine barring a couple of scenarios: change of Russian leadership, or some kind of offensive strike into Russian territory. I would think it's tough to win a war when all of the fighting is in your country. Right now Ukraine is fighting to not lose.
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Yep. They are fighting for their country and freedom rather than greed.

I think Donbas was/is probably on Putin's must-have list when he started this mess, just like Great Britain was for Hitler in WW2, except there is no body of water like the English Channel between the two countries in this war.
 
Gen. Mattis speaks:

"We're watching Russia wither before our eyes," former US defense chief says

Former US Defense Secretary James Mattis criticized Russia’s war in Ukraine, calling it “immoral” and “operationally stupid,” while speaking Friday at the Seoul Forum 2022.
“We have a saying in America, we say that nations with allies thrive, nations without allies wither and we’re watching Russia wither before our eyes right now," Mattis said. When asked what military lessons could be taken from the war so far, the former US Marine said: “One is don’t have incompetent generals in charge of your operations.”
He also called Russia's military performance "pathetic" and decried "the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort" of its campaign in Ukraine.
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www.cnn.com

"We're watching Russia wither before our eyes," former US defense chief says

At least 20 people, including a child, have died following Russian missile strikes on the southern region of Odesa on Friday, according to Ukrainian officials. Follow live updates here.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
news.usni.org

DoD: Ukraine Sinks Russian Supply Ship With Harpoon Missile - USNI News

Ukrainian forces used a Harpoon missile to sink a Russian resupply ship headed to Snake Island, a senior defense official told reporters Friday afternoon. The sinking of the ship helped Ukrainian forces retake Snake Island, which had been in Russian control since the early days of the invasion...
news.usni.org news.usni.org

The island, called Zmiinyi Ostriv in Ukraine, was the symbol of Ukrainian resistance after a Ukrainian service member on the island told Russian warship Moskva to “go fuck yourself.” Ukraine later sank Moskva.
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The U.S. will send additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rock Systems (HIMARS) through the presidential drawdown, which means the U.S. will pull from its existing supply.

It will also send two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, 155mm artillery ammunition and four additional counter-artillery radars through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

The most recent package did not include any maritime elements, although the U.S. announced it was sending 18 coastal and riverine boats, as well as a vehicle-mounted Harpoon launcher in past assistance.

Of the 19 boats, six are Metal Shark maritime combat vessels and 10 are 34-foot, Dauntless Sea Ark patrol boats, according to the Department of Defense.
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Eliminating the Russian assets involved in the naval blockade is the next escalation.
 
news.usni.org

Navy Cancelling Early Separation; Offering Extensions for Retirement, Separation - USNI News

The Navy is canceling early separation programs and encouraging delayed separation as it aims to retain more sailors, especially in sea billets. The Navy announced the cancellation of enlisted early out programs, as well as waivers for new time-in-grade requirement, in NAVADMIN 142/22, released...
news.usni.org news.usni.org

Some of this appears to be a result of offsetting separations due to Covid vaccine refusals, but also maybe the need for ships/sea service personnel in the wake of the world situation caused by the Ukraine invasion by Russia.

JMO
 
This was in February.

www.navalnews.com

Russia's improved Kilo-class submarine entering Black Sea - Naval News

Russia's improved Kilo-class (Project 636.3) submarine Rostov-na-Donu entered the Dardanelles on February 12 en route to the Black Sea.
www.navalnews.com www.navalnews.com

www.19fortyfive.com

Russia's Kilo-Class: The 'Black Hole' Submarine the US Navy Hates

Russia's Kilo-class submarines are stealthy enough to be called the "black hole" by some in the US Navy and present some real challenges.
www.19fortyfive.com www.19fortyfive.com

The Kilo-class subs are non-nuclear conventional diesel-electric boats that are still very dangerous if Russia elects to start torpedoing merchant ships as part of their blockade against Ukraine.
 
Have they defeated Russia yet, they got Billions of our tax dollars for the president and his wife to pose for Vogue magazine, nothing says elite like your countrymen being slaughtered on the battlefield while you do a photoshoot for Vogue...
Tell us how weak Russia is and how shirt this war will be again, I forget, if they ended the war quick they couldn't take weapons and money from us...
 
UK has won back significant territory the past week or 2. In particular in the east. Russian tropps are feeling, leaving behind equipment and munitions.

And also this....
Deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino have called for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resignation, according to a petition with a list of signatures posted on Twitter on Monday.

“We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of its president Vladimir Putin are detrimental to Russia’s and its citizens’ future. We demand Vladimir Putin's resignation from the post of the President of the Russian Federation,” said the petition posted by Ksenia Thorstrom, a local deputy of the Semenovsky District in Saint Petersburg.
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Spur's Addiction said:
UK has won back significant territory the past week or 2. In particular in the east. Russian tropps are feeling, leaving behind equipment and munitions.

And also this....
Deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino have called for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resignation, according to a petition with a list of signatures posted on Twitter on Monday.
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Well this is an interesting development. I wonder where this goes from here? Russia's military has been exposed. I'm not sure how they turn this around at this point. Hopefully someone from inside the Kremlin takes Putin out and provides an avenue to peacefully end this. I also wonder why the MSM has nearly quit covering this war?

 
Ukraine has reinvented ground warfare for the 21st century. They have proven to be brilliant.
This is the worst defeat for Russia since WWII and is still happening.

Stay tuned...things are happening fast!
 
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