I just think this whole thing sounds way too fishy. They have fought like crazy for Bakhmut. Now Ukraine launches a counter-offensive and all of the sudden Prigozhin and 25,000 of his Wagner fighters have left there and were headed to Moscow.
Then, they just stop and give up their rebellion. Now they are setting up in Belarus and supposedly Putin allowed that.
I'm thinking maybe Ukraine was making up a lot of ground near Bakhmut so they just high tailed it.
Now Putin has a reason for loosing ground. It will because the Wagner group gave it up. It is not because his Russian troops were just getting beat. Looking at the Map,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682, Ukraine has taken back a bunch of land.
I think in a few days when Ukraine is taking more land, like a Surge, Putin and Prigozhin are going to make up and Wagner is going to attack from Belarus and head towards Kiev again. Ukraine will have to pull resources back to protect Kiev and their surge will be stopped.