What's new
By:
Filters
Gamecock Fanatics

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Evaluating Muschamp tenure at the helm so far

Mr Ed said:
Assuming Muschamp gets fired.... Just out of curiosity, what do you think the odds are that our next coach will make it to year 5?   I want to know a percentage.   Do you think it’s pretty good?  50/50?  
Click to expand...
Are they capable of showing improvement during those first 4 years? Everyone's answer to your question should match your answer to this one.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FeatheredCock said:
THE STATE covers every angle possible to how this all could play out. After reading makes you want to kick back and think what is the best way to go.  I will give the 3 below. 

Breaking down the scenarios for how this South Carolina football saga plays out. (VIEW FULL ARTICLE)


SCENARIO 4: WILL MUSCHAMP IS FIRED


What that looks like: Many fans have called for such an outcome, but in the end there are a few hurdles. First is the $19 million contact buyout that would drop by a few million at the end of next season. All indications are Athletics Director Ray Tanner believes in Muschamp and would like to see him get one more chance. (And no full-time USC coach has had fewer than five years since the 1930s.) How the Clemson game plays out could factor into the mood here, as could Muschamp’s own desire to go through a do-or-die season.

Confidence level it plays out this way: Possible by several avenues, but not super likely


SCENARIO 5: WILL MUSCHAMP STAYS, RAY TANNER MOVES ON


What that looks like: In a world where new school president Robert Caslen wanted to shake up all of athletics, this is how things would go. Many fans have called for changes at both spots, but were that to happen, an interim AD would be in charge of picking a football coach. This would have the order to facilitate a full shakeup if next year doesn’t go well. Caslen by all indications seems to like Tanner and stood by a public statement made last week.

Confidence level it plays out this way: Not very likely


SCENARIO 6: TANNER AND MUSCHAMP ARE BOTH SENT OFF


What that looks like: This would be dramatic and give a lot of angry folks that momentary burst of catharsis. And then it wouldn’t work. An AD couldn’t be hired that fast. A coach would be working for someone who didn’t hire him from the start. It would introduce a lot of instability that couldn’t be made stable quickly.

Confidence level it plays out this way: Deeply unlikely
Click to expand...
Did they rank any scenario as likely?

 
Mr Ed said:
Assuming Muschamp gets fired.... Just out of curiosity, what do you think the odds are that our next coach will make it to year 5?   I want to know a percentage.   Do you think it’s pretty good?  50/50?  
Click to expand...
Depends on who's doing the hiring. Willie Taggart and Chad Morris are probably on RT's "hot list".  :animated-smileys-computer-02:

 
If/when we do get around to looking for a new head coach, can we get a huge thread going for it like we did on CT for the last coach search? I have some new Muschamp jokes.

 
Sporkgod50 said:
Are they capable of showing improvement during those first 4 years? Everyone's answer to your question should match your answer to this one.
Click to expand...
The answer is 15% of new coach hires in the SEC make it to year 5.   So about an 85% chance that we would be in the same spot or worse in 4 years.  

 
Mr Ed said:
The answer is 15% of new coach hires in the SEC make it to year 5.   So about an 85% chance that we would be in the same spot or worse in 4 years.  
Click to expand...
I guess we should just accept mediocrity and keep dumping money into a defective product. 

 
carolina_corpsman said:
I guess we should just accept mediocrity and keep dumping money into a defective product. 
Click to expand...
That depends on if you think it’s smart to bet $18 million on 15% odds.  

I will post more on this later, but the very few coaches that actually get past year 4 do quite well.  

 
Mr Ed said:
That depends on if you think it’s smart to bet $18 million on 15% odds.  

I will post more on this later, but the very few coaches that actually get past year 4 do quite well.  
Click to expand...
At what point is that 18 mil offset by declining ticket/season ticket/concession/merch sales? Two more years of 4-5 win seasons and we are better off eating 18 mil. 

 
I am usually very optimistic about our football team, but this season, with the exception of Georgia, has been one kick after another right in the crotch.  This entire thing appears to be a giant cluster**** from the top down.  I am hoping that this is an elaborate, well planned strategy to fool the world, and motivate the staff and team to turn into killers from here on out, and next year we will burst on the scene, and take college football by storm.  But, I’m not holding my breath, or expecting this by any means. I have to hold onto some glimmer of hope, regardless of how bad it really is.  I have pretty much resigned myself to the idea that Carolina football has slipped back to below mediocrity, and will remain there for a minimum of 5 more years. The only way that doesn’t happen is: 1. Muschamp magically gets a great OC, and it turns around next year, or 2. after next year we hire an incredible coach who can turn it around in a year or two.  Both are highly unlikely in my eyes. This doesn’t affect my life, really, but it does ruin my enjoyment of college football, knowing my team has zero chance of being competitive for at least 5 years. 

 
Cockyandproud said:
I am usually very optimistic about our football team, but this season, with the exception of Georgia, has been one kick after another right in the crotch.  This entire thing appears to be a giant cluster**** from the top down.  I am hoping that this is an elaborate, well planned strategy to fool the world, and motivate the staff and team to turn into killers from here on out, and next year we will burst on the scene, and take college football by storm.  But, I’m not holding my breath, or expecting this by any means. I have to hold onto some glimmer of hope, regardless of how bad it really is.  I have pretty much resigned myself to the idea that Carolina football has slipped back to below mediocrity, and will remain there for a minimum of 5 more years. The only way that doesn’t happen is: 1. Muschamp magically gets a great OC, and it turns around next year, or 2. after next year we hire an incredible coach who can turn it around in a year or two.  Both are highly unlikely in my eyes. This doesn’t affect my life, really, but it does ruin my enjoyment of college football, knowing my team has zero chance of being competitive for at least 5 years. 
Click to expand...
I think they have a shot to be decent in two years.  Not sure who will be coaching them but the statement from Caslen today was great news for the program.  

 
carolina_corpsman said:
At what point is that 18 mil offset by declining ticket/season ticket/concession/merch sales? Two more years of 4-5 win seasons and we are better off eating 18 mil. 
Click to expand...
I would assume the stadium would have to be near empty.  Look at it on the bright side, we are saving money for OC or possible new coach after next year.  No need to piss $18 mil away.  

 
Mr Ed said:
I would assume the stadium would have to be near empty.  Look at it on the bright side, we are saving money for OC or possible new coach after next year.  No need to piss $18 mil away.  
Click to expand...
I agree with you here at least on the point that attendance really only matters in team performance and getting recruits. The money in college football comes from tv

 
Mr Ed said:
That depends on if you think it’s smart to bet $18 million on 15% odds.  

I will post more on this later, but the very few coaches that actually get past year 4 do quite well.  
Click to expand...
They keep their jobs past 4 years because they  show that they are good at them, making it no surprise that they do well. There's nothing magic about getting an unearned fifth year that makes a coach insanely better than they are

 
Sporkgod50 said:
They keep their jobs past 4 years because they  show that they are good at them, making it no surprise that they do well. There's nothing magic about getting an unearned fifth year that makes a coach insanely better than they are
Click to expand...
Certainly you could say that, but when such a large percentage of coaches are canned by year 4 it’s worth a deeper look.  I would think if the theory that coaches should build a program in 4 years held water there should be a much higher success rate.  These are highly regarded coaches getting canned at an extraordinary clip before getting to see their 5th year.  

 
Mr Ed said:
Certainly you could say that, but when such a large percentage of coaches are canned by year 4 it’s worth a deeper look.  I would think if the theory that coaches should build a program in 4 years held water there should be a much higher success rate.  These are highly regarded coaches getting canned at an extraordinary clip before getting to see their 5th year.  
Click to expand...
I think that might be the least parsimonious explanation.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top