What should our response be if Russia invades Ukraine?

[kingofnerf]

 

[Homebrewcock]

I think the MiG transfer was for Poland to transfer those to the US, we give them to Ukraine and then provide Poland some of our planes. Seems like a giant cluster eff, but maybe there is a logistical reason? Maybe if Poland gives them directly to Ukraine, Russia goes after them, but won't go after the US? Not really sure. War is so effing stupid. Humans are stupid at times.

 

[kingofnerf]

Here is a great article on European "cabinet wars" from the U.S. Naval Institute.

Cabinet Wars: The Advent of an Idea
One solution can be found in what the Germans called Kabinettskrieges—“cabinet wars”—which flourished in the wake of the unconstrained bloodletting and destruction of the Thirty Years’ War. That conflict, which left much of Central Europe ruined and its population decimated, was a wake-up call for rulers within the nascent state system rapidly taking root. The war ended in the Treaty of Westphalia, which remade the European international order. But even in this new system, the most powerful European states did not give up their expansionary ambitions, and those not looking to expand were kept busy defending their territory from those that did. In short, European powers never lacked reasons to go to war. What changed was that states were shifting their aims from total victory and subjugation of the loser to more limited objectives, such as seizing a coveted province or colony.

‘Limited’ Wars Could Make a Bloody Return

“Flexible response” plans can help prevent prolonged fighting and devastation.

www.usni.org

Most of us would rather have peace, though.

 

[JimG]

Most likely to wargame against to get our pilots acclimated to flying against the real thing.

They can do that anytime...plenty of MiGs still flown by NATO partners.

 

[Spur's Addiction]

Russians bomb Children's Hospital and Maternity Ward in Mariupol. bunch of fvcking savages. Putin is making himself a place in Hell right next to Hitler.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Russians bomb Children's Hospital and Maternity Ward in Mariupol. bunch of fvcking savages. Putin is making himself a place in Hell right next to Hitler.

Russia has a long history of brutal and barbaric treatment of others. They are the equivalent of the Nazi's. Stalin was so ruthless and brutal to Ukraine that when the Nazi's rolled through there they were greeted warmly as "liberators."

 

[Spur's Addiction]

WH warns that Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine.

 

[kingofnerf]

I saw today where the Chernobyl reactor has gone off of the power grid and is unable to cool itself now.

The diesel generators only have enough fuel to run for 7 days. Belarus just north of Chernobyl seems to be friendly to Putin. None of what's going on right now really makes sense to me, other than the level of human suffering in Ukraine is horrific.

Unless Biden is holding back to force some NATO countries to pony up and carry their weight, a refusal to intervene in Ukraine is essentially telling Putin he can take most of Eastern Europe back. It really could be done in less than two years if the Western countries continue to do nothing directly as they are in Ukraine now.

Biden: "America's back."
Putin: "Hold my beer."

What if Erdogan eventually decides he's seen enough and Turkey starts thumping Russia on its own? The risk of escalation is there whether we decide to intervene or not.

 

[JimG]

....a refusal to intervene in Ukraine...

We are intervening...

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I

I saw today where the Chernobyl reactor has gone off of the power grid and is unable to cool itself now.

The diesel generators only have enough fuel to run for 7 days. Belarus just north of Chernobyl seems to be friendly to Putin. None of what's going on right now really makes sense to me, other than the level of human suffering in Ukraine is horrific.

Unless Biden is holding back to force some NATO countries to pony up and carry their weight, a refusal to intervene in Ukraine is essentially telling Putin he can take most of Eastern Europe back. It really could be done in less than two years if the Western countries continue to do nothing directly as they are in Ukraine now.

Biden: "America's back."
Putin: "Hold my beer."

What if Erdogan eventually decides he's seen enough and Turkey starts thumping Russia on its own? The risk of escalation is there whether we decide to intervene or not.

I'm not sure if that scenario would trigger a NATO response or not. Turkey launching an attack on Russia is different then Russia attacking a NATO country.

 

[JimG]

I'm not sure if that scenario would trigger a NATO response or not.

If there is ever a NATO response across the border into Ukraine, it will have to be a full on assault of Russian air defenses and air power.
At that point, every NATO airbase is subject to cruise missile attack.
There's nothing but ugly in all of this.

 

[Longhaul]

Meanwhile we are going to try to buy oil and empower other countries that hate our guts smdh. Putin will have to be taken out at some point. I really don't think he intends to stop until he has rebuilt the USSR and I think he will use any means in his arsenal to get there.

 

[JimG]

I really don't think he intends to stop until he has rebuilt the USSR...

...and if he can never take all of Ukraine?
How do you take NATO countries, if you cannot even successfully invade and occupy Ukraine?

Putie done effed up...

 

[Longhaul]

...and if he can never take all of Ukraine?
How do you take NATO countries, if you cannot even successfully invade and occupy Ukraine?

Putie done effed up...

I don’t disagree but I think he needs to be taken out before he decides he is so backed into a corner that Nuclear is the only answer and I do think he has no problem using it.

 

[kingofnerf]

Not really. The Wehrmacht numbered in the millions in 1940...Putin's forces are less than 200K in Ukraine.
Putin doesn't have the forces to occupy all of Ukraine for an extended time....which means a long insurgency is almost assured (Afghanistan).
The Ukrainians are up for that fight & the intel/logistic support from the west is unprecedented.

If there is ever a NATO response across the border into Ukraine, it will have to be a full on assault of Russian air defenses and air power.
At that point, every NATO airbase is subject to cruise missile attack.
There's nothing but ugly in all of this.

Not trying to call you out or anything, but I believe the reality of the Russians' operational state lies somewhere these two statements.

Our weapons work and our people know how to use them and most likely are more passionate about the situation in Ukraine than most in the Russian military are.

A single competent and courageous NATO commander that calls Putin's bluff would stop all this BS without anything going nuclear.

 

[JimG]

A single competent and courageous NATO commander that calls Putin's bluff would stop all this BS without anything going nuclear.

We are already doing that.
Not sure what more do you expect besides total war.
There are no in-betweens.
See for yourself: Currently 2x RC-135s, 1x JSTARs, & 1x tanker patrolling the borders with Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/47.89,24.76/5#

 

[scfan2001]

I saw today where the Chernobyl reactor has gone off of the power grid and is unable to cool itself now.

The diesel generators only have enough fuel to run for 7 days. Belarus just north of Chernobyl seems to be friendly to Putin. None of what's going on right now really makes sense to me, other than the level of human suffering in Ukraine is horrific.

Unless Biden is holding back to force some NATO countries to pony up and carry their weight, a refusal to intervene in Ukraine is essentially telling Putin he can take most of Eastern Europe back. It really could be done in less than two years if the Western countries continue to do nothing directly as they are in Ukraine now.

Biden: "America's back."
Putin: "Hold my beer."

What if Erdogan eventually decides he's seen enough and Turkey starts thumping Russia on its own? The risk of escalation is there whether we decide to intervene or not.

The President of Belarus is buddies with Putin and just as dirty.

 

[kingofnerf]

We are already doing that.
Not sure what more do you expect besides total war.
There are no in-betweens.
See for yourself: Currently 2x RC-135s, 1x JSTARs, & 1x tanker patrolling the borders with Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/47.89,24.76/5#

We just can't do it in public right now.

The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. The announcement came as a shock to many, U.S. and European officials said, including aides in Eastern European capitals who hoped to keep the transfer quiet.

But the Ukrainian government heard the proposal and ran with it, producing infographics claiming they were about to receive 70 used Russian fighter jets from Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria. A Ukrainian government official told POLITICO that Ukrainian pilots had even traveled to Poland to wrap up the deal and bring the planes back over the border.

Yet Borrell’s bloc, much less the countries actually tasked with supplying these jets, had never agreed to this plan.

Shot down: How Biden scuttled the deal to get MiGs to Ukraine

After an errant comment, rapid-fire negotiations and blunt announcements, the plan to send warplanes to Ukraine is no more.

www.politico.com

This type of Russian aggression cannot be allowed to stand.

NATO boots will be on the ground and NATO jets will be protecting Ukrainian air space at some point in the near future.

It is just a question of "when" not "if".

 

[JimG]

I don’t disagree but I think he needs to be taken out before he decides he is so backed into a corner that Nuclear is the only answer and I do think he has no problem using it.

The best way to take him out is to let him self-destruct within his own country. That's what autocrats tend to do.
Lose the war with Ukraine and see what happens.

At this point, I do not think they are capable of taking all of Ukraine which leads to an extended insurgency that the Russians cannot sustain.

 

[JimG]

NATO boots will be on the ground and NATO jets will be protecting Ukrainian air space at some point in the near future.

...and will play perfectly into Putin's hand.
Give him the support he needs at home and he stays in power.