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What should our response be if Russia invades Ukraine?

www.barrons.com

Microsoft, FedEx Join Airbnb in Suspending Russia Services. Here Are the Others.

As sanctions against Russia intensify, the private sector is pulling out of the country.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com

I recall a stand-up bit Robin Williams did where he talked about the Russians being suspicious of Beetles that came into Russia in a reference to the Germany's Eastern Front in Russia in WW2.

"Hmm...might be car; might be tank." LOL
 
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In case people were wondering about Ukraine also being called "the Ukraine":

English definite article​

Ukraine is one of a few English country names traditionally used with the definite article the.[1] This is apparently because the word "ukraina" means "borderland",[30] and so would be translated as if "the borderlands" — the Ukraine — like how Nederlanden, meaning "nether lands", is translated as "the Netherlands".[31] Use of the article was standard before Ukrainian independence, but has decreased since the 1990s.[2][3][32] For example, the Associated Press dropped the article "the" on 3 December 1991.[3] Use of the definite article was criticised as suggesting a non-sovereign territory, much like "the Lebanon" referred to the region before its independence, or as one might refer to "the Midwest", a region of the United States.[33][34][35]

In 1993, the Ukrainian government explicitly requested that, in linguistic agreement with countries and not regions,[36] the Russian preposition в be used instead of на,[37] and in 2012, the Ukrainian embassy in London further stated that it is politically and grammatically incorrect to use a definite article with Ukraine.[1] Use of Ukraine without the definite article has since become commonplace in journalism and diplomacy (examples are the style guides of The Guardian[38] and The Times[39]).

en.wikipedia.org

Name of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Russia set to declare martial law on its own citizens. People fleeing right and left while they can.

www.theguardian.com

‘My future is taken away from me’: Russians flee to escape consequences of Moscow’s war

Growing numbers of Russians are leaving the country, fearful of possible martial law and the war’s consequences
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

“I got my family together after a friend at the ‘top’ called me about this martial law thing. We booked the first plane available on Tuesday and flew to a random country I have never been before,” said Anton, a senior manager at a major Russian oil and gas firm. “I am not planning to fight in this war that wasn’t my decision to begin with.”

Some men who left earlier this week said they were extensively questioned at the Russian border.


Andrei, a Moscow-based cinema director, said he was held at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport before boarding a flight to Baku.


His luggage was searched, and an official went through his private chats on different messaging apps.


“He took my phone and spent a good hour scrolling through everything. Luckily, I deleted all chats discussing my opposition to the war on Telegram and Signal,” Andrei said.


“I was asked if I ‘truly’ loved my country and if I was against the war. He asked me why I wanted to ‘flee’ and why I was reading independent outlets like Meduza.


“It was one of the scariest moments in my life,” said Andrei, who eventually was allowed to board his flight.
 
Flightradar tracking planes over Poland this AM:
2x B-52, 2x USAF tanker planes (one track over Poland/one over Romania), 1x Global Hawk drone, US Army Chinook in Poland about 50 mi W of border with Ukraine.
All NATO fighter aircraft can refuel from USAF tankers.
Flightradar does not track fighter aircraft.
NATO is stirring the pot.

www.flightradar24.com

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.
www.flightradar24.com www.flightradar24.com
 
JimG said:
Flightradar tracking planes over Poland this AM:
2x B-52, 2x USAF tanker planes (one track over Poland/one over Romania), 1x Global Hawk drone, US Army Chinook in Poland about 50 mi W of border with Ukraine.
All NATO fighter aircraft can refuel from USAF tankers.
Flightradar does not track fighter aircraft.
NATO is stirring the pot.

www.flightradar24.com

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.
www.flightradar24.com www.flightradar24.com
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It seems to me that both sides over there share Soviet-era weapons, which would possibly cause problems with outside military assets deconflicting between friend and foe.

Which leads me to the opinion that it is wiser to get the weapons to the Ukrainians and let them deconflict at the field level.

They say it takes about 3 weeks for potential buyers to see a marketing message and then act on it if they are actually going to buy what is being sold.

In that frame of mind, I would say what NATO needs to do inside Ukraine will gel up in another week or so.

I do think one of the major weaknesses for Ukraine is they have only waited until now to try to join the EU and possibly NATO. They really have to choose their master at some point otherwise their nation will become a prisoner of its divisions and likely be destroyed by Russia.
 
I think Putin is set on leveling the entire country. Ukraine needs some air support or no fly zone. Not sure how this could get done, but without that, it seems their country will be turned into rubble.
 
kingofnerf said:
It seems to me that both sides over there share Soviet-era weapons, which would possibly cause problems with outside military assets deconflicting between friend and foe.
Click to expand...
IFF is something the Ukrainians have to sort. They are now wearing yellow armbands & not all of the armor is similar.
We're not getting involved beyond outside support....which is immense.
The US shares detailed intel constantly...that's invaluable.
If you look around twitter....there's tons of tactical advice being given for urban warfare.
Allegedly, the Russians have had to bring in more armor from other regions.

The west is going to make this as ugly as it can for the Russians and I can see NATO intimidating the Russians with activity which is a distraction.
If I can track B-52 flights over Romania, so can the Ruskies.
 
On a side note FWIW, when I was in Bosnia the Russians were also there as part of the peace keeping force. NATO (the US actually ran it) had a base at Tazsar, Hungary that was safe and stable and we would often go there for a day or two, sometimes three if we were lucky. They had GP medium tents set up with cots already in them and we could relax for a couple of days and shed our "battle rattle" and weapons.

There was also a small PX, a Red Cross tent where you could call home, watch movies etc. There was also a "beer tent" where you could buy beer but you had to drink it there. At any given time there might be soldiers from a half dozen or more countries there. The beer tent was of course the focal point.


We often ran into Russian soldiers there and every one of them that I had any interaction with was without exception one of the biggest assholes I've ever talked to. They also had inferiority complexes the size of Rhode Island and they wanted to spend their time telling you over and over how great Russia was blah blah blah. They also were difficult to work with when we had shared missions. All of the other nations were great to work with.


All of the other soldiers I encountered were joys to interact with and we both really seemed to enjoy talking with each other and there was plenty of mutual respect all around except for the Russian assholes. I drank beer with British, French, Belgian, Dutch, Canadian, Danish, Hungarian, and German soldiers. They all despised the Russians without exception.

As far as their training goes we didn't get to witness much of that but when they held their formations you got the impression that they ran things out of pure fear. Their equipment was shoddy and often prone to breaking down. Our company had a recovery section in one of our platoons that was basically the equivalent of a civilian wrecker service.


They would go out and tow broken down equipment back to the base in Tazsar for repair. They would give the breakdowns of what equipment they towed in by equipment type, owning nation, where it broke down etc in our weekly briefings and without fail the Russian equipment made up half of everything that was towed in. I also got the impression that many of the lower ranking soldiers had no desire whatsoever to be there. Their morale was low.

All of the other European forces seemed excellent, especially the British. My overall impression of the Russians was poor and this was with several hundreds of encounters with them not only in Tazsar but all over Bosnia and Croatia and with various units.
 
JimG said:
IFF is something the Ukrainians have to sort. They are now wearing yellow armbands & not all of the armor is similar.
We're not getting involved beyond outside support....which is immense.
The US shares detailed intel constantly...that's invaluable.
If you look around twitter....there's tons of tactical advice being given for urban warfare.
Allegedly, the Russians have had to bring in more armor from other regions.

The west is going to make this as ugly as it can for the Russians and I can see NATO intimidating the Russians with activity which is a distraction.
If I can track B-52 flights over Romania, so can the Ruskies.
Click to expand...
I thought I heard somewhere that most of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine now are contractors rather than regular Army.

Is that true?
 
Great information Blitzkrieg. Thanks for sharing. And thank you for your service.

Any idea why their equipment was so prone to breaking down? Lack of money for quality parts, etc? Not really surprised by your description of the Russians either. Maybe they were so afraid, asshole was their only defense. And in no way am I saying that is OK. Just curious if they are all so afraid of being killed, sent to prison or whatever else will happen by their own country.
 
kingofnerf said:
I thought I heard somewhere that most of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine now are contractors rather than regular Army.

Is that true?
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Dunno....but CNN had this posted. It's pretty condemning of the Russian performance so far. Check bolded.

Direct attacks on a massive Russian convoy outside Kyiv, coupled with a destroyed bridge in the convoy’s path, have stalled the Russian forces about 15 miles north of the city, a senior defense official said Friday. Meanwhile, Ukraine retains a “significant majority” of its air combat power, as Russia remains unable to establish air supremacy.
The convoy, stretched out more than 40 miles of road, has not appreciably advanced since the weekend, the official said.
“We certainly believe that the Ukrainians blowing up that bridge absolutely had an effective on stopping and curtailing the movement of that convoy,” the official said. “But we also believe that they have hit the convoy at other places as well in direct attacks.”
Earlier this week, the official said logistical and sustainment issues have also contributed to the slow advance of the convoy. But the US believe Russian forces in the convoy are regrouping and learning from their mistakes as they continue to try to attack the Ukrainian capital.
As the fight on the ground continues, the Ukrainian air force still has fighter jets, helicopters and drones available, though they have suffered some losses, the official said. The losses are due both to “Russian actions” and inoperability, the official added.
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www.cnn.com

Direct attacks and a destroyed bridge have slowed Russian convoy advance on Kyiv, US defense official says

Russia has ramped up assaults on key Ukrainian cities, as President Zelensky pleads for more international assistance and a second round of talks between Ukraine and Russia are set to take place. Follow here for live news updates from on the ground in Ukraine.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
There has always been an underlying note about Russian troops in the second half of the 20th century onwards that they were poorly trained, poorly led by an abysmal junior officer cadre (although strong noncoms) and that most were filling out their service requirement as quickly as they could. I would think that Putin would have used as many of his "A" units as he could in the Ukraine - but even those are performing poorly.

This is not the nation that beat back the Wehrmacht in '43 and drove on Berlin in '45. Far from it.
 
Homebrewcock said:
Great information Blitzkrieg. Thanks for sharing. And thank you for your service.

Any idea why their equipment was so prone to breaking down? Lack of money for quality parts, etc? Not really surprised by your description of the Russians either. Maybe they were so afraid, asshole was their only defense. And in no way am I saying that is OK. Just curious if they are all so afraid of being killed, sent to prison or whatever else will happen by their own country.
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They probably don't take care of their equipment like we do. Also if you have troops with low morale (which they had) these troops tend to do a poor job of checking fluid levels and performing routine maintenance tasks.

I can't speak for the other services but in the Army we performed daily PMCS (preventative maintenance checks and services) which is pretty extensive to ensure that the vehicles are running at top level.

As far as the Russians being assholes thing my brother in law was in the Air Force and ended up on some mission in an African nation (don't remember the details) but the Russians were there as well and they shared some common areas. His experience and impressions about them were the same.
 
JimG said:
Dunno....but CNN had this posted. It's pretty condemning of the Russian performance so far. Check bolded.



www.cnn.com

Direct attacks and a destroyed bridge have slowed Russian convoy advance on Kyiv, US defense official says

Russia has ramped up assaults on key Ukrainian cities, as President Zelensky pleads for more international assistance and a second round of talks between Ukraine and Russia are set to take place. Follow here for live news updates from on the ground in Ukraine.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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I will draw a comparison between Russian losses in the Ukraine and the significant losses of veteran Japanese aircrews in the early Pacific naval battles of WW2.

The Japanese Navy had 2000 carrier-qualified aircrews at the start of the Pacific war. Despite us losing the carriers Lexington (Coral Sea) and Yorktown (Midway) in May and June of 1942, 110 of those vital Japanese aircrews were lost at the Battle of Midway.

Only a few months later, our carrier Wasp was torpedoed and sunk during the early days of the Guadalcanal campaign with no losses on the Japanese side in September of 1942. Then the carrier Hornet was lost not more than 30 days later in the Battle of the Santa Cruz Islands. However, the Japanese lost 148 valuable veteran aircrews to newer and improved radar-controlled anti-aircraft fire and other things in the same battle.

Although things looked bleak for us at the time, we did not know the long-term effects of the Japanese aircrews would have in their war effort until much later.

Things look pretty bleak for the Ukrainians right now, but I believe they will prevail in the long run for many reasons, air superiority being one of those.
 
Swayin said:
There has always been an underlying note about Russian troops in the second half of the 20th century onwards that they were poorly trained, poorly led by an abysmal junior officer cadre (although strong noncoms) and that most were filling out their service requirement as quickly as they could. I would think that Putin would have used as many of his "A" units as he could in the Ukraine - but even those are performing poorly.

This is not the nation that beat back the Wehrmacht in '43 and drove on Berlin in '45. Far from it.
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That's because they're simply goons wearing uniforms to make them look respectable, among other things. LOL
 
In the infancy of our own U.S. Navy, officers received actual monetary commissions on wooden sailing warships and merchant ships that they captured, which were often renamed and sailed under the Stars and Bars instead of the British Union Jack flag. Hence the term "commissioned officer" in the USN.

I could see a similar situation in Ukraine where the Russian supply convoys are wrecked and Russian tanks and other equipment are seized and put to work for Ukrainian forces using NATO-supplied fuel or that from Ukraine.

It's probably happened already to a limited degree if the Russians have deserted the vehicles.

Russia is beyond stupid from that standpoint.
 
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www.si.com

Ukrainian tennis player Sergiy Stakhovsky leaves family to join army - Sports Illustrated

The now retired ATP Tour winner admitted he has zero military experience or training.
www.si.com www.si.com

The eight-time ATP Tour title winner Sergiy Stakhovsky announced he will be joining the Ukrainian army to defend his home country.

Stakhovsky was just playing in the Australian Open in January, but following the tournament announced his retirement after 19 years.

Now, the 36-year-old is hanging up his racket to fight for his country amid the ongoing Russian invasion. He announced earlier this week on BBC Radio 4 Todaythat he would be leaving his wife and three kids to join the army.

“I know that it is extremely hard on my wife,” Stakhovsky said. “My kids don’t know that I’m here. They don’t understand war. They‘re too little to understand what’s going on.”
 
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